COVID Can be Contained by Feb 2021: Govt Panel

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Crossing the coronavirus peak in mid-September, India is expected to be able to contain the spread of the deadly virus by the end of February 2021, a government-appointed panel of scientists and doctors said in an official statement on Sunday.

The 'Covid-19 India National Supermodel' committee led by Professor M Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad) made the finding in its study titled 'Progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts'.

The upcoming festival and winter season can increase the susceptibility to infection, the committee observed. Furthermore, relaxation in protective measures for COVID-19 can lead to a significant rise in active cases with almost 26 lakh infections within a month, the committee said.

"Our predictions show initially the number of cases was negligible around March, and then we entered this kind of an exponential growth rate and then it began to moderate, and it had peaked somewhere in the middle of September, and now it is beginning to wind down," said Professor M Vidyasagar said.

"Bottom line being that the pandemic has peaked; however, this is not a reason for us to relax because this nice downward trend will be maintained only if we continue with the protective measures," Vidyasagar added.

The committee stated that 30% population are having antibodies at present and the cumulative mortality is projected to be less than 0.04% of total infected.

The panel further predicted that if a nationwide lockdown wasn't imposed deaths due to the virus in the country would have crossed 2.5 million.

"Had India waited until May to impose the lockdown, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakh by June. In actuality, the peak of active cases came in late September at around 10 lakh. By this time, we were far better equipped to handle the pandemic in terms of diagnostics and vital equipment inventories," the panel said.

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