The growth rate of the COVID-19 infection in India, after seeming to be flattening, is heading north again, with the number of cases scaling new highs every day over the past week. The trend could be attributed to delays in reporting of cases by states, ramping up of testing, or the virulence of the contagion.
On 6 May, India recorded 3,427 cases, increasing marginallyto 3,446 on 7 May before settling lower at 3,142 on 8 May. But there was aspike on 9 May at 4,000 and 10 May at 4,109. The 10 May tally is the highestsingle-day rise in India since the outbreak.
According to scientists, an epidemic curve is driven by three factors—infectiousness of the virus, the proportion of the population that is susceptible to the virus, and the rate at which infected people become non-infectious.
"The higher the infectiousness, the steeper the curve; and the higher the proportion, the larger the number of people who will be infected which will result again in a steep curve. The curve is steep when the virus is infectious, the susceptible population is large, and the infected people continue to infect others or spread the infection for a long time—that is, during the period they are asymptomatic, while they are sick, and during recovery," said Lalit Kant, former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases, ICMR.
Kant said there was no evidence that the infectiousness of the virus was changing. Without a vaccine, the only parameter for deciding the curve is the susceptible population. "If we have a vaccine, we can immunize the susceptible population. It is very little we can do to change the density of population given our socioeconomic and cultural factors, including a large joint-family system," he said.
"The curve would be flat as long as every infected person is able to infect on an average one another susceptible person, that is when net reproduction rate (R0) is close to 1 (the rate at which one infects others). For the curve to show a dip the value of R0 should fall below one. For that to happen the infected individuals should decrease, and the number of immune persons should increase," he added.
The health ministry claimed the number of cases is increasing due to a delay by states in reporting numbers, an increase in testing of up to 100,000 people every day, and the partial lifting of the lockdown.
"The COVID-19 curve in India is far from flat if curbs continue and people bring a behavior change we can flatten the curve in a couple of weeks," said Prof Mahendra K. Verma of IIT-Kanpur.
"Government's social distancing policy has failed miserably as now we are witnessing COVID-19 cases in large numbers from several slum localities across the country along with cases from other communities," said Dr. Suresh Sharma of the Institute of Economic Growth, New Delhi.
Citing examples of slums of Mumbai and Noida, Sharma said, "Overcrowding is a major cause behind the increased COVID-19 cases. The population density in slums is much higher than in other areas of the cities. Poor nutrition and a high prevalence of respiratory and other medical conditions among the slum population make them more susceptible to the COVID-19 infection."
The government on Tuesday said that the doubling rate of COVID-19 cases that was hovering around 10.9 for the last 14 days, has improved to 12.2 in the last three days. "The fatality rate to has decreased from 3.3% to 3.2% and recovery rate is pegged at 31.74%," said Harsh Vardhan, Union Health Minister.
On Tuesday, the minister also held a meeting with Girish Chandra Murmu, Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, R. K. Mathur, Lieutenant Governor of the Union Territory of Ladakh, Trivendra Singh Rawat, Chief Minister of Uttarakhand, and Jai Ram Thakur, Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh to take stock of preparedness and measures for the management of COVID-19 in the states and union territories. Sirmaur district in Himachal Pradesh is providing training with COVID-19 appropriate behavior to barbers and salon operators to prepare them for the post-lockdown operations. Ayurvedic immunity boosters have also been provided to frontline health workers, police personnel and paramilitary forces, Thakur stated.
Harsh Vardhan pointed out that as the usage of tobacco isfairly high in Ladakh, spitting in public places needs to be banned as per theguidelines issued earlier.
