Has India Moved Past Its First Wave of COVID-19?

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In what can be a harbinger of better times ahead, India’s first wave of COVID-19 seems to be on a decline, HT reported.

The report suggests that based on three important parameters – Infection rate, Doubling rate and Death rate.

While the seven-day average of daily infections in the country rose up to 93,617 (the highest till date) on September 16, the following three weeks have witnessed a gradual drop in the number. In fact, the number has dropped dramatically every single day since then. On Wednesday, the number stood at 74,623 – a drop of 20% from the peak.

Similarly, the doubling rate has undergone a transition. It has seen remarkable improvement in the past one month. As against 32.6 days on September 7, it stood at 60 days on Wednesday.

This drop can also be seen in terms of the fatality rate. On September 15, the weekly average of the daily deaths was the highest so far at 1,169. However, it dropped to 977 on Wednesday, again a considerable drop of 16%.

Amid these positive signs, however, is also the fear that the coming festive season may again lead to a surge in the number of cases.

Thus, Dr VK Paul, member of Niti Aayog, had underscored last Tuesday that the impending festivals will be all about masks. “Mask wali Chhath, mask wali Eid, mask wala Dussehra aur mask wali Diwali,” he had said.

He had further said, “This is all for our own good; and needs to be promoted big time. Community heads should ensure and appeal that festivals should be celebrated with caution; not in large groups but smaller groups. Large gatherings, especially in marketplaces, could be detrimental, so we have to be careful.”

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