Despite the great bravado, despite the great cavalcades of the ruling party, the NDA is actually scraping through to power in Assam, as per the indication of all opinion poll.
The Average of all the five opinion poll suggest that NDA will have 68and UPA will have 57 seats while regional bloc will get just one seat.
That means NDA will form the government with a very slim majority. To form a government in the 126 member Assam assembly, one needs 64 numbers, and NDA is expected to get just four more seat, which is highly uncomfortable.
Rude Shock for Ruling party
The opinion poll has been a rude shock to the ruling alliance which has been predicting a clean sweep and behaving in that manner. From all the opinion polls and ground reports it is clear that the anti CAA movement is gaining ground and regional bloc has been completely discarded and anti BJP votes are consolidating in favour of UPA.
The Times Now C Voters Opinion poll is more specific and zone wise and it shows that except the Tea Region of Upper Assam ruling NDA is long everywhere. Even in the Tea region is barely holding before a resurgent UPA.
Hagrama dominates Bodo region
In The Bodo region, thanks to curial ties with the Hagrama Mohilary led BPF, the opinion poll has predicted a major shift with UPA doing substantially well taking away as many as seven seats from NDA. This is on a predictable line Hagrama Mohillary is going all out to teach UPPL and Himanta Biswa Sarma a lesson in that area.
Barak valley off BJP
The Barak Valley is another game changer. As the Congress and AIDGF have come together under Mohajot, the BJP has given a body blow and from NDA will have 6 and UPA will have 9 seats of the 15 total seats of the Valley, which means two seats are going in favour of UPA.
In the hills district it will be clean sweep of the NDA and there is no chance of anyone else.
Lower Assam Mahajot sweeping
But in lower Assam there is a dramatic changes as UPA is gaining as many as 11 seats there, the maximum in any parts of Assam. NDA will lose seven seats as they are expected to get just 10 seats in comparison to 21 of UPA. This has been due to complete consolidation of AIUDF and Congress votes.
Middle Assam make BJP nervous
The picture is the same in the middle Assam also and here also the NDA has a steady decline due to the Mohajot. They are going to lose as many as 4 seats while UPA is gaining 6 seats. This is again the consolidation of anti-BJP and Muslim votes in the area. Last time the BJP has swept the whole region and in fact, did not lose a single seat in the Northern Bank from Dhekiajuli and this time they’re expected to lose as many as 5 seats there.
BJP holding tea region
The only saving grace is the Tea region of Upper Assam where NDA is expected to retain their traditional stranglehold but actually increasing by two seats. Which means the huge controversy surrounding the tea garden wages have not been able to make a major dent in NDA as expected by many.
The NDA is winning 31 seats here and UPA is winning just 5 seats as per the poll. Now every eye is on this zone as it is going to poll on March 27 and every ground indicators are saying that grand position of NDA is actually much tight they may end up wing nine seats brining down the NDA tally from the rejected 31 to 27 and if that comes true then it would be a very close fight for Assam.