Swagata Borah
As March is over, the global economy has shown some signs of recovery, although at a slower pace than expected. Here's a roundup of the month's major economic events and developments.
Indian Economy FY22-23: The Indian economy and business sector in Fiscal Year 2022-23 has been experiencing both positive and negative impacts. On the positive side, India's GDP growth is expected to reach 7.5 percent, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. India has also been able to attract more foreign investments in the recent past, with FDI inflows reaching USD 72 billion in FY 2021-22, a 10 percent increase from the previous year.
India's recent reforms in labor laws, agricultural marketing, and the National Monetization Pipeline (NMP) have also boosted investor sentiment.
However, the country has also been facing several challenges that have hindered its economic growth. One of the most significant challenges is the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disrupted global supply chains and affected the manufacturing and services sectors. The pandemic has also led to a significant rise in inflation, which is expected to remain high in the coming months. The recent fuel price hike has further added to the inflationary pressures.
India's business sector has also been facing several challenges in the current fiscal year. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many businesses to shut down or reduce their operations, leading to job losses and reduced incomes. The informal sector, which accounts for a significant portion of India's economy, has been particularly hard hit by the pandemic. The government has taken several steps to support the business sector, including the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, which aims to promote self-reliance and boost domestic manufacturing.
The banking sector in India has also been facing several challenges, including rising bad loans and stressed assets. The government has initiated several measures to address these issues, including the establishment of a bad bank to take over stressed assets from banks. The Reserve Bank of India has also introduced several measures to improve the health of the banking sector, including a new loan recast framework.
Overall, the Indian economy and business sector in FY 2022-23 is a mix of both positives and negatives. While the country is expected to grow at a robust pace, several challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and challenges in the banking sector, need to be addressed. The government's recent reforms and initiatives, along with its focus on self-reliance and domestic manufacturing, are expected to provide much-needed support to the economy and the business sector.
Stock Market: The stock market experienced a volatile month, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fluctuating in response to various economic indicators and events. Despite some turbulence, the indices ended the month with positive gains, with the S&P 500 up 4.2 percent, the Dow up 6.6 Percent, and the Nasdaq up 0.4 percent. Tech stocks, however, underperformed compared to the broader market, with the Nasdaq Composite struggling due to rising interest rates and inflation concerns.
Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrency continued its wild ride in March, with Bit coin and other major cryptocurrencies experiencing significant fluctuations. At the start of the month, Bit coin was trading at around USD 49,000, but by mid-month, it had plummeted to around USD 47,000. However, towards the end of the month, it rebounded to over USD 58,000. Meanwhile, Tesla announced that it would start accepting Bit coin as a form of payment, providing a boost to the crypto currency market
Global Trade: Global trade saw some positive developments in March, with China's exports and imports surging more than expected. According to China's General Administration of Customs, exports jumped 30.6 percent year-on-year in March, while imports rose 38.1 percent, both surpassing expectations. This growth was driven by strong demand for electronics, medical equipment, and work-from-home products amid the pandemic. However, supply chain disruptions, shipping delays, and rising commodity prices continue to pose challenges for global trade.
Oil and Gas: Oil prices saw some fluctuations in March, with Brent crude oil prices reaching their highest level in over a year at USD 71.38 per barrel. This was due to a combination of factors, including OPEC+'s decision to maintain production cuts and a supply disruption in the Suez Canal. However, concerns about the pandemic's impact on global demand and rising US oil inventories kept prices from climbing further
It is to be mentioned that, March brought some positive developments for the global economy, particularly in the US job market and China's trade sector.
However, the stock market experienced volatility, while crypto currency and oil prices continued their unpredictable movements. The world economy continues to grapple with the pandemic's impact, and the pace of recovery remains uncertain.
