The Battle for BTR: A New Political Chessboard Emerges

Mrinal Talukdar

The Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) is heading towards another high-stakes election in November–December 2025, but the political chessboard is more intricate than ever before. Traditionally, the primary rivalry in the Bodo heartland has been between Pramod Boro’s United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) and Hagrama Mohilary’s Bodoland People's Front (BPF), with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) playing a secondary, albeit rising role. But this time, the game has changed—dramatically.

Unlike in 2020, when the BJP aligned itself with the UPPL to wrest power from the decade-long reign of Hagrama’s BPF, this time the saffron party is going solo. And not only is it contesting alone, it is doing so with an unprecedented show of strength, ambition, and strategy, with Assam Chief Minister Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma personally leading the campaign by making near-constant tours of the BTR districts.

Recap of 2020: A Fragmented Mandate

The last BTR polls in 2020 were marked by fragmentation. Here's a snapshot:

The result was a hung council, with the BJP-UPPL alliance eventually forming the government and Pramod Boro—then a recent entrant to electoral politics and former All Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU) president—emerging as Chief Executive Member (CEM) of BTR.

BJP's Solo Sprint

Fast-forward to 2025, the BJP is no longer content playing kingmaker. It intends to contest at least 25 seats—more than half of the 40-member council—and form the government on its own. Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma’s aggressive campaigning in BTR signals not just confidence, but a deeper strategy to reshape the region’s political landscape.

One of the BJP’s key strategic moves has been its outreach to non-Bodo communities—particularly Gorkhas, Bengalis, and Muslims—who have traditionally supported the BPF. In a calculated step, the party pushed two-time MP Naba Sarania and his Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) into the orbit of the BPF, thereby consolidating the support of Bodo voters outside the UPPL-BPF axis. This feeds directly into the BJP’s larger objective: to frame the BTR election as a “Bodo versus the rest” contest—and then decisively capture the “rest.”

The Mystery Man: Dwipen Boro

Enter Dwipen Boro, the current ABSU president and the X-factor of the election. Officially leading a student body, Dwipen is stirring the political pot by issuing a clarion call for the unification of UPPL and BPF—a call that is scheduled to be formally amplified at the ABSU meeting on August 15.

But this move is more than an appeal for unity—it is an audition for leadership. Dwipen Boro, insiders say, wants to be the face of a unified Bodo front. If he succeeds in this mission, he could pivot from student activism to electoral politics as a formidable leader. However, the prospects of a UPPL-BPF merger are dim. The BPF has already declared it will go it alone. In truth, Dwipen’s push serves a dual purpose: While it projects a sense of Bodo unity, it actually helps the BJP by further polarizing the electorate.

The Bodo vs. Non-Bodo Faultline

This engineered polarization may suit the BJP’s strategy perfectly. A visibly assertive Bodo front—especially if led by someone like Dwipen Boro—could alarm non-Bodo communities in the region and drive them into BJP’s arms. Moreover, a portion of Bodo voters, especially the younger generation and Bodo Christians, are reportedly leaning towards the BJP as well, attracted by its organizational strength and promise of political stability.

By amplifying Bodo nationalism through Dwipen Boro and simultaneously rallying the rest through its own organizational machinery, the BJP is attempting a clever two-front sweep. It has officially projected Biswajit Daimary, the current Speaker of the Assam Assembly and former BPF MP, as its Bodo face. But on the ground, it is Dwipen who is being positioned as the real gamechanger, allowing the BJP to keep one foot in both camps.

Moreover, Dwipen Boro and Biswajit Daimary emerge as the two key beneficiaries in this election. The BJP may project Biswajit Daimary as its Chief Executive Member (CEM) candidate for Kokrajhar, while Dwipen Boro is poised to fill the vacuum left by Daimary in Dispur—positioning himself as the new Bodo face of the next BJP-led government. Both Pramod and Hagrama will play a side winder role fornext five years preparing for political oblivion from 2030.

A Saffron Future?

If BJP’s plan works, it could win 25 or more seats, enough to form the council independently. The grand design seems to be a unity government where both UPPL and BPF are reduced to appendages—stripped of power but kept close for optics. It's a delicate balancing act, and one that reflects BJP’s growing confidence and ambition in Assam’s tribal politics.

Whether this plan succeeds or not will depend on how well the BJP can manage its internal contradictions, the timing of Dwipen Boro’s entry into active politics, and how the Bodo electorate responds to yet another round of high-stakes political engineering.

One thing is certain: the 2025 BTR elections will be the most watched, the most strategic, and perhaps the most transformative in the history of this autonomous region.

 ALSO READ: Battle for BTR: Pramod Boro’s Cup of Challenge; Hagrama’s Chopper of Comeback