Assam CM Cautions on Brahmaputra Dam: "Too Early to Say, But Risks Are Real"

In a move fraught with geopolitical and ecological consequences, China has begun constructing the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River—known as the Brahmaputra in India—just a few kilometres upstream of the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh. The $167.8 billion dam, part of the sweeping Nyingchi hydropower project, is being built at Mainling in Tibet’s Nyingchi City, a seismically volatile and environmentally sensitive region.

Assam, which sits in the heart of the Brahmaputra basin, is now watching anxiously as China tightens control over the river that sustains millions in northeast India.

Responding to the development, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Monday struck a note of guarded concern. “Whether it will be good or bad for Assam—we don’t yet know. It’s too early to draw conclusions,” he told reporters in Guwahati. Yet, his tone suggested the state government is wary of the long-term implications.

Importantly, Sarma pointed out that nearly 70 percent of the Brahmaputra’s water volume originates not from China but from rainfall, tributaries within Assam, and upstream regions like Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh. This, he implied, could act as a hydrological buffer against drastic reductions in flow due to upstream Chinese intervention.

However, he cautioned that volume alone does not determine river health. “Scientifically, any major intervention could affect the river’s ecological balance and biodiversity. If the Brahmaputra receives reduced water flow, it could behave more like a floodplain, altering its natural flood management role,” Sarma warned.

A Monster Dam at the Edge of India

The scale of the Chinese project is staggering. Once completed, the dam is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually—more than enough to power the entire population of the United States. It will eclipse even the famed Three Gorges Dam, China’s current record-holder in hydropower output.

But for India, this isn't just about power—it's about sovereignty, ecology, and survival.

The dam lies at the notorious U-bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, just before the river plunges into Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang, later becoming the Brahmaputra. This area is not only ecologically fragile but also geopolitically sensitive. Any disruption to the river’s natural flow—whether by accident, design, or future conflict—could have catastrophic effects downstream, particularly in Assam and Bangladesh.

Seismic, Ecological and Political Tremors

Experts have already sounded the alarm over the dam’s location. The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the world. The Himalayas are still rising as the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates continue to collide. Constructing a megastructure of this scale in such a volatile zone poses enormous risks—not just to Tibetans but to downstream communities across South Asia.

“This is not just a dam. It’s a geopolitical lever and a ticking time bomb rolled into one,” warned a senior environmentalist based in Northeast India.

Despite China’s repeated claims of environmental safeguards, independent hydrologists, ecologists, and disaster management experts remain deeply skeptical. The history of dam-induced disasters and ecological imbalances in Asia is long and bloody. Once the dam is operational, it could fundamentally alter sediment flow, river velocity, aquatic life migration, and water availability downstream—potentially triggering droughts in dry seasons and unmanageable floods during monsoons.

A Calculated Power Play

The timing of the dam’s launch is as significant as its scale. With tensions between India and China continuing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and South Asia grappling with growing climate volatility, Beijing's control over one of India’s most critical water sources is being viewed as an act of strategic assertion.

“This project is part of a broader Chinese effort to weaponize water,” said a former Indian intelligence official. “By monopolizing the headwaters of Asia’s greatest rivers, Beijing is effectively building a chokehold on India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and other downstream nations.”

In fact, the Nyingchi project follows an earlier dam—Zam Hydropower Station—commissioned by China in 2015 on the same river. That project already stirred unease in Delhi. The current mega-dam is on an entirely different scale.

India’s Cautious Diplomacy

Chief Minister Sarma expressed confidence that the Government of India would take the issue seriously. “The Centre is fully aware, and I’m confident they will ensure the interests of Assam and the Northeast are protected,” he said.

But questions loom: Can India afford to remain diplomatically passive when its riverine lifelines are being engineered by a hostile neighbour? Does New Delhi possess the political will and technical roadmap to respond, or is it being outpaced by Beijing’s infrastructural blitzkrieg?

Water: Asia’s Next Battlefield

With the Nyingchi dam, water has officially entered the theatre of great-power rivalry. The Tibetan Plateau, often dubbed the “Third Pole” due to its vast freshwater reserves, is now the site of a silent, high-stakes contest over control, access, and influence.

While Sarma’s reassurance on the Brahmaputra’s internal contributions offers a degree of hydrological cushion, experts warn that the danger lies not just in quantity, but timing, quality, and regulation of flow. In lean seasons and critical flood cycles, even minor upstream diversions can destabilize entire ecosystems and displace communities.

For Assam, and for millions dependent on the Brahmaputra, the stakes are existential. From livelihoods in agriculture and fisheries to flood control and biodiversity, the river is the region’s lifeline. Disrupting its flow is not merely an environmental issue—it is a question of survival.

As construction begins in the high gorges of Tibet, India must now decide how it will confront a future where its waters are no longer entirely its own. The shadow of the dam is long, and its ripples will be felt far beyond the Himalayas.

Also Read: China Begins Construction of World's Largest Dam on Brahmaputra in Tibet