The Bharatiya Janata Party is praying for more protest against the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) and to sustain it till April 12, 2019 to make up the loss in the Uttar Pradesh. This is the actual game plan of the BJP.
The India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll suggests last night that the BJP was staring at huge loses in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. According to the opinion poll, "If general elections were to be held today, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal would win only 18 seats in the politically important state of Uttar Pradesh. That is a drop of a staggering 53 Lok Sabha seats compared to the BJP's 2014 tally".
This was the outcome before Priyanka Gandhi entering politics. If Congress-SP-BSP joins hand then BJP would be reduced to 11 seats, the poll suggest.
The BJP insiders informed that the party bosses had been instructing the Assam BJP to provoke the popular protest against CAB with harsh actions and comments so that the protest not only rises and sustain it till the April 9.
The BJP's calculation is that election to West Bengal will be held in the second or third phase and hence it is extremely important to 'encourage" the popular protest of Assam to go full steam till the Bohag Bihu, which will help further consolidate the West Bengal votes as BJP is desperate to get at least 15 seats in Bengal. At present BJP has 2 seats of 42 in Bengal.
The BJP is expeting 20 seats from North East and 25 from West Bengal and Orissa together. In 2014, the BJP had only 9 seats from NE and this time they are confident of winning 20, a gain of 11 seats.
So if WB, NE and Orissa send around 30 additional seats, that would be some compensation for the massive loss the BJP is staring at UP alone.
In 2014, the BJP had nearly swept Uttar Pradesh, winning 71 seats and relegating other parties to single digits. Apna Dal had won two, taking the BJP-AD alliance's share to 73.
In 2019, the table may turn on the saffron party, India Today-Karvy Insights' Mood of the Nation poll suggests. The party and its ally would win 18 seats, while the alliance between Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party would come out on top with 58 seats. The Rashtriya Lok Dal is also part from the SP-BSP alliance.
