Voter List Revision Polarises Assam, 44.8% Endorse SIR: Survey

A new pre-poll survey has brought Assam’s growing political and social divides into sharp focus, revealing strong support for the controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list even as deep communal and generational fault lines shape the road to the 2026 Assembly elections.

According to the VoteVibe survey under the StateVibe series, nearly 45 per cent of voters have backed the SIR exercise, while only 11.3 per cent have openly opposed it. The findings suggest that while the exercise has consolidated support among large sections of voters, it has also intensified concerns and resentment among others, particularly within minority communities.

The survey places the NDA slightly ahead in the electoral race but makes it clear that the contest is far from settled. While the ruling alliance enjoys an edge in governance perception and leadership preference, its lead in vote share is narrow, with youth unrest, opposition infighting and a sizeable undecided voter base keeping the race wide open.

Despite these challenges, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s government continues to enjoy strong public approval, with 58 per cent of respondents rating its performance positively. Of them, 38.1 per cent described the government as “excellent”, while 19.9 per cent called it “good”. However, dissatisfaction remains significant, with 23.4 per cent terming the government’s performance poor.

Support for the government is strongest among older voters, particularly those above 55 years of age, where approval levels approach 80 per cent. In contrast, young voters aged 18 to 24 are sharply divided, reflecting growing expectations around employment, accountability and development rather than past achievements.

The survey also highlights clear community-based differences in political sentiment. While Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, OBCs and General category voters recorded approval levels above 70 per cent, Muslim voters showed markedly lower support, with only 32 per cent expressing a positive view of the government and nearly half registering dissatisfaction.

At the constituency level, signs of anti-incumbency are visible. Only 38.3 per cent of voters said they would re-elect their current MLA, while over 44 per cent indicated either a preference for a different candidate from the same party or a complete change.

The opposition, meanwhile, appears troubled. Factionalism within the Congress, weak organisational presence and setbacks due to delimitation have dented its prospects, though Gaurav Gogoi’s leadership appeal still offers the party some hope of revival.

Overall, the VoteVibe survey suggests that while the NDA enters the 2026 race with a slight advantage, Assam’s electoral battlefield remains volatile. Youth discontent, undecided voters and deepening social divisions ensure that the coming election will be fiercely contested and politically unpredictable.