War in West Asia Sends Ripples Through Assam’s Orthodox Tea Market

Missiles may be flying between the United States, Iran and Israel thousands of kilometres away, but the shockwaves are already being felt in the quiet tea factories of Assam. For many orthodox tea makers in the state, the distant war has suddenly turned into an economic worry, threatening the export markets they depend on.

Industry stakeholders say escalating geopolitical tensions across Iran and the Gulf region could severely disrupt the export-driven orthodox tea trade from North India, particularly Assam, where a growing number of planters have shifted towards orthodox tea production in recent years.

According to Dinesh Bihani, Secretary of the Guwahati Tea Auction Buyers Association, the West Asian region remains one of the most critical destinations for Indian orthodox tea exports, making the industry vulnerable to prolonged instability in the region.

India’s tea exports have shown healthy growth in recent years. The country exported 280.40 million kilograms of tea in 2025, compared to 256.17 million kilograms in 2024. Out of the 199.11 million kilograms exported from North India, nearly 128.47 million kilograms comprised orthodox teas, highlighting the export-driven nature of the segment.

West Asia accounts for a significant portion of this trade. In 2025 alone, exports to key markets included 52.59 million kilograms to Iraq, 50.71 million kilograms to the UAE, 11.25 million kilograms to Iran and 7.94 million kilograms to Saudi Arabia, taking the total exports to the region to 122.49 million kilograms.

With tensions rising in the region, exporters fear that demand for premium orthodox teas could weaken sharply. If global buyers fail to absorb the surplus supply, prices, particularly for orthodox varieties, may come under pressure.

The concern is particularly significant for Assam because the state government has been actively encouraging tea planters to shift from CTC to orthodox tea production, offering subsidies and incentives to promote the transition. Orthodox teas generally fetch higher prices in international markets and have stronger export demand compared to CTC teas, which are largely consumed domestically.

Encouraged by these incentives and export prospects, many tea estates and small growers in Assam have already switched part of their production to orthodox tea manufacturing in recent years. Any sustained disruption in West Asian markets could therefore directly impact this emerging segment of the industry.

Exporters are also worried about rising logistics costs. According to Bihani, prolonged tensions could lead to higher freight charges, rising marine insurance premiums, longer transit times and an overall increase in transaction costs for shipments to the region. 

The timing of the crisis is another concern. The new tea production season in North India is about to begin, and expectations of higher orthodox output are already building. If demand from West Asia weakens just as fresh supplies enter the market, the industry could see a sharp correction in orthodox tea prices.

Unlike CTC tea, domestic consumption of orthodox tea in India remains limited. As a result, much of the production is dependent on export markets, making the sector highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions.

For Assam’s orthodox tea makers, the conflict unfolding in distant West Asia is therefore not just international news. It is a reminder that in a globalised trade network, even a war far away can quickly reach the tea gardens of Assam.