India in Pole Position to Become Upper-Middle-Income Country by 2030: SBI Research

India is firmly positioned to transition into an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, according to the latest report by SBI Research. The report highlights a sharp acceleration in India’s growth trajectory over the past decade, placing the country in the 95th percentile of the global growth distribution for the decade ending 2024.

SBI Research estimates that India’s economy will reach the USD 5 trillion mark within the next two years. The report traces India’s long-term economic evolution, noting that it took 60 years after Independence to reach a USD 1 trillion economy. The pace has since accelerated significantly, with India reaching USD 2 trillion in 2014, USD 3 trillion in 2021, USD 4 trillion in 2025, and now poised to add the next trillion in just around two years.

In terms of per capita income, India crossed the USD 1,000 mark in 2009, USD 2,000 in 2019, and is expected to reach USD 3,000 by 2026. By 2030, per capita income is projected to touch USD 4,000, enabling India to join China and Indonesia in the World Bank’s upper-middle-income category.

The report draws on World Bank data on gross national income (GNI) per capita, which shows a broad global upward shift in income levels between 1990 and 2024. During this period, the number of high-income countries rose from 39 to 87, while low-income countries declined from 51 to 26. Among 48 low- and middle-income countries that successfully moved up the income ladder, Guyana emerged as the strongest performer, transitioning from low-income status in 1990 to a high-income country by 2024, with per capita GNI rising from USD 390 to USD 20,140. China and Indonesia also made significant progress, both moving from low-income to upper-middle-income status.

SBI Research noted that India’s relative global growth performance has improved markedly. Its percentile rank in cross-country average real GDP growth has risen from the 92nd percentile over a 25-year horizon to the 95th percentile in the most recent decade, reflecting a clear rightward shift into the upper tail of global growth.

Looking ahead to the government’s Viksit Bharat vision for 2047, the report assesses the feasibility of India becoming a high-income economy. If the current high-income threshold of USD 13,936 per capita GNI remains unchanged, India would need a per capita GNI growth rate of about 7.5 per cent annually, considered achievable, given that per capita GNI has grown at a CAGR of 8.3 per cent between 2001 and 2024. However, if the threshold rises to around USD 18,000 by 2047, the required growth rate would increase to nearly 8.9 per cent, translating into nominal dollar GDP growth of about 11.5 per cent annually.

The report notes that such growth rates are not unprecedented. India recorded average nominal GDP growth of around 11per cent in dollar terms during FY04–FY20 and about 10per cent during FY04–FY25, reinforcing the view that the transition to upper-middle-income status—around a USD 4,500 per capita GNI threshold—is imminent.

Globally, income distribution has shifted significantly over the past three decades. In 1990, of the 218 countries classified by the World Bank, 51 were low-income and 39 high-income. By 2024, high-income economies had more than doubled to 87, underscoring sustained global economic progress.

Against this backdrop, SBI Research said India’s ascent stands out for both its scale and speed. With the United States remaining the largest economy and China second, India is expected to overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028. The report emphasised that continued structural reforms and sustained high growth will be crucial for India to secure upper-middle-income status by the end of this decade and lay the foundation for its transition to a high-income economy by 2047.

Also Read: India to Remain Fastest Growing Major Economy in 2026, 2027: IMF