Indian Economy To Grow at 7.4% In 2025-26 Despite Trump Tariffs

Despite the tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump-led US, the Indian economy has been pegged to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, beating the previous fiscal year’s 6.5 per cent growth, according to data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.

India’s economy, the third largest in Asia in terms of purchasing power parity, is estimated to grow at a two-year high to beat expectations of slowdown, on the back of resilient expansion in services and manufacturing sectors.

 India will also retain the ‘fastest growing major economy’ tag backed by the latest GDP numbers. This comes as an impetus as the government tries to navigate a tough global economic environment. To beat Trump’s tariffs, the government took major steps, including the reduction of GST and securing crucial free trade agreements with strategic partners in line with its RCEP-China approach.

The first advance estimates will undergo revisions with more data coming in and changes to the base year that the NSO will undertake to update several economic indices. The second advance estimates will be released on February 27.

Sector-wise Data

Accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the economy, the services sector is expected to push strong expansion with an estimated rise of 9.1 per cent in 2025-26, compared with a growth of 7.2 per cent last year.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is estimated to grow by 7 per cent in 2025-26 as against 4.5 per cent in the last financial year. The construction sector, though declining, remained healthy at a growth rate of 7 per cent, when compared to last fiscal’s 9.4 per cent.

Additionally, the farm sector is estimated to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2025-26, further declining from last year’s 4.6 per cent. The mining sector is also estimated to contract by 0.7 per cent.

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