Bihar Verdict 2025: What Worked and What did not?

The results for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 are out, and the incumbent NDA has scored a thumping majority with 202 out of 243 seats (BJP 89, JDU 85, LJP 19, HAMS 5, RLM 4) while the opposition Mahagathbandhan/INDIA alliance of RJD, Congress, left parties, and the VIP faced a humiliating defeat, winning only 35 seats (RJD 25, INC 6, CPIM 1, CPI ML 2, IIP 1). The much-talked-about Jan Suraaj Party of poll strategist Prashant Kishor could not win a single seat, while the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi maintained its past record by winning 5 seats again. While most of the exit polls predicted a comfortable win for the ruling NDA, the sheer scale of victory did come as a surprise. But how does this result come into effect, and what are the messages of this verdict? Let’s understand one by one.

Means, Message, Mass Base and Tickets-

Success in any electoral contest depends on the 3 Ms and 1 T- means or the election machinery and resources, message of the issues raised and campaign, mass base of the parties in fray and tickets or candidates fielded. Even if we discount various pre-poll surveys and the exit polls, it was quite clear that the NDA had a decisive lead over the INDIA alliance on all these fronts. While the electoral machinery of the NDA worked like a well-oiled engine, that of the opposition hiccupped at all levels. The alliance partners of the INDIA block were fighting against each other on more than 10 seats as Congress kept on delaying the announcement of declaring Tejaswi Yadav’s name as the consensual CM choice.

 Further, since caste plays a dominant role in Bihar’s politics, it was expected of both blocs to increase their mass base. But where NDA had a bigger social coalition supporting it- BJP bringing in upper castes and Baniyas, Nitish adding EBCs and women, LJP leader Chirag Paswan providing backing of Paswans, Upendra Kushwaha of RLM mobilising Kushwahas and Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM bringing in Musahar/Manjhi voters, that of the INDIA block remained constrained to MY (Muslim-Yadav) voters. The only relief came from left parties who brought in Ravidas voters, Mukesh Sahani of VIP getting some backing of Mallah voters, IIP mobilising support of Pan or Tanti-Tatma voters and Congress pulling some forward votes. However, the left parties, VIP and IIP all had support in just a few pockets of the state, thus limiting the social vote base of the opposition, which paled in comparison to the NDA.

Lastly, the Mahagathbandhan could have compensated for its smaller vote base by giving tickets to leaders of those communities whom it wanted to win over, but here too it failed miserably. Out of the 141 candidates fielded by RJD, 50 plus were from the Yadav community, and if we add Muslim candidates to it, the number goes further up. To worsen its prospects, the opposition did not rely on scientific surveys to distribute tickets on merit and charges of ticket selling were levelled at the leaders by party workers on a massive scale. The NDA, on the other hand, chose its candidates well, reflecting its diverse social base while also launching a targeted campaign against the ‘jungle raj’ or misrule of Lalu Yadav’s heydays, resulting in a better connection with the electorate.

Women Voters: The real force behind NDA Tsunami-

What differentiates Bihar from other north Indian states is the fact that it is the only state in the Hindi Heartland that has a committed ‘women vote bank’, which is primarily inclined towards CM Nitish Kumar. And Nitish has worked consistently to achieve that feat. From distributing bicycles to school-going girls in his very first term to ensuring law and order, guaranteeing a functional women's help line and banning alcohol, the various steps of his government have greatly helped improve the status of women. It might come as a surprise to many, but Bihar tops Indian states in terms of male-female ratio in the police, with around 23.6% of the state’s police workforce comprised of women. The State Rural Livelihood Mission of Bihar, called Jivika, is considered one of the best-performing rural livelihood missions in the country, with around 1107481 self-help groups (SHGs) and crores of women members.

It was this machinery that was used to execute what we can call as the biggest targeted welfare scheme in India- a grant of Rs 10,000 to around 1 crore 31 lakh women beneficiaries, that too just before the election. The results were as expected. As per the ECI data, 8.8% more women voters voted in this election compared to the male voters, and they voted decisively in favour of the NDA. While some survey agencies thought it to be a close election due to higher percentage of youth voters preferring the INDIA bloc, they made the mistake of not segregating the ‘youth’ on gender lines as young girls and women in the 19-35 age category also voted predominantly for Nitish and the NDA, thus creating a tsunami for the ruling alliance in terms of results. 

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj and AIMIM: Similarities and Differences-

The most hyped factor of this election was poll strategist Prashant Kishor and his party Jan Suraaj’s debut in Bihar’s politics. True to his background, PK launched a very carefully crafted campaign around jobs, migration, corruption and misrule, fielding an army of election professionals who painted every nook and corner of the state in the party’s yellow colour. But lack of a committed vote base and the tendency of Bihar’s electorate to not trust and support anyone immediately, but only in due course of time, proved fatal for his new party, which could not open its account this time.

For almost the same reasons, the AIMIM had met with a similar fate when it debuted in Bihar in 2015, but in place of giving up, its leader Asaduddin Owaisi continued with his efforts and won 5 seats in the dominated Simanchal region of Bihar bordering West Bengal in the 2020 elections. It suffered a shock later when 4 of its MLAs joined the RJD, but the Waqf Amendment Bill presented a golden opportunity to the party, and like a seasoned player, it channelised the anger of Muslims against it by initiating a series of protests. By publicly announcing its willingness to join the INDIA alliance in return for just 6 seats and even reaching out to the doorstep of Lalu Yadav’s home, its leader, Akhtarul Iman, succeeded in giving a message to Muslim voters that AIMIM was willing to sacrifice for the cause of secularism. This cemented the faith of Muslim voters of Simanchal in the party, and when the AIMIM was turned down arrogantly by the INDIA alliance, the voters of the region rallied behind it strongly, which became visible during Owaisi’s Simanchal Yatra weeks before the elections.

This time, the AIMIM won 5 seats again, but not just that, it lost the sixth seat- Balrampur in Katihar district, by less than 1000 votes. Breaking the structural constraint of being limited to the Kishanganj Lok Sabha seat is a huge progress that it managed to score by reaching out in other districts of Simanchal like Katihar, Araria and Purnia.

Conclusion-

The Bihar verdict also raises some pertinent questions regarding the impact of the first-past-the-post principle followed in India’s elections, over the issue of representation. With around 20.7 of % votes, the BJP has 36.6% of the seats, while the RJD has only 10% of the seats despite a whopping 22.9% vote share. Similarly, both Congress and the AIMIM have almost a similar number of seats (2% approximately), but their vote percentage has a near 7% gap. This definitely undermines the principle of fair representation in elections and necessitates at least a serious debate on electoral reforms.

Rajan Pandey is the Director of the Hyderabad-based survey agency People’s Pulse.

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