Blood, Sanctions and Strategy: Iran’s Crisis and the Global Chessboard

Amid continuing unrest in Iran, opposition-linked news outlet Iran International has claimed that at least 12,000 people were killed by security forces during a nationwide crackdown on anti-government protests, describing it as the deadliest episode in the country’s modern history.

The figure stands in sharp contrast to official estimates cited by Reuters, which quoted a government official as saying that approximately 2,000 people had died. The official attributed the violence largely to the actions of “terrorists,” rejecting allegations of mass killings by state forces.

In a related development, reports indicated that citizens were able to place international calls on Tuesday, marking a partial restoration of communications after a complete blackout that had lasted for four days.

The opposition-backed news outlet also claimed that the crackdown was carried out on the direct instructions of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the awareness and approval of senior figures across the country's political establishment. The report further alleged that the Supreme National Security Council had issued an order authorising the use of live ammunition against protesters.

US At Play Here As Well?

US President Donald Trump has been biding his time from afar with timely threats. His recent announcement was that of warning countries doing business with Iran would face additional 25 per cent tariff from the US.

The US’s vested interests in the West Asian country are undeniable. The current situation of protests has been caused in a way by repeated economic sanctions crippling it. The US alleges Iran secretly developed nuclear weapons despite being a signatory to the treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as the reason behind its sanctions.

Iran, which has a strategic partnership focused on natural gas with Russia to develop fields and infrastructure, means the duo can boast of one of the largest natural gas reserves of the world combined. Being a cleaner fuel, natural gas is being seen as a good alternative to crude oil. The US wants a part of it.

The good relations between Iran and the US during the regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi were permanently severed during the Iranian Revolution of 1979. His son and crown prince Reza Pahlavi is one of the principle opponents to the current regime and has been vocal calling the people to hit the streets to protest and topple the government. Prior to the revolution, the Shah served Iran’s natural resources to the US and the West on a plate, which ultimately resulted in his fall.

The US, though not backing the crown prince directly, is watching patiently waiting to see how things unfold. A fall of the current regime definitely plays into Trump’s hands. However, a direct military action is unlikely as it will bring Russia into the picture as well.

India Affected

The protests in Iran however, adversely affect India’s interests. India remains among its top five trading partners, reflecting the continued economic engagement between the two countries. In the financial year 2024–25, India’s exports were valued at USD 1.24 billion. During the same period, India imported goods worth USD 0.44 billion. Taken together, bilateral trade between the two nations stood at USD 1.68 billion in FY 2024–25.

The safety of Indians in the protest-stricken country is also a concern for New Delhi at the moment. However, India’s work in developing the Shahid Beheshti Terminal of the Chabahar port will take a hit if the country sees a regime change. The strategic port offers India a route to West and Central Asian countries including Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. The port also offers huge opportunity to increase trade with African countries which can emerge as the largest markets for Indian exports.

Also Read: Iran Protests Claim Over 500 Lives; US Weighs Military Options