Jefferies Bullish on India, Says Trump’s 50% Tariff Threat a Buying Opportunity

Global broking giant Jefferies has advised investors to stay bullish on India despite US President Donald Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on Indian exports. Christopher Wood, Jefferies’ Managing Director and one of the most influential analysts on emerging markets, argued in his latest Greed & Fear newsletter that New Delhi should not bow to Washington’s pressure tactics.

Wood told Jefferies’ clients that, instead of selling Indian equities, the current climate is a reason to buy them. “It is only a matter of time before Trump backs off the stance, which is not in America’s interest. The track record makes it clear that it pays to stand up to the Donald,” Wood wrote, pointing to Trump’s history of U-turns after aggressive posturing.

He further warned that Trump’s confrontational trade strategy could accelerate global moves towards de-dollarisation—where Brics nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) increasingly trade in non-dollar currencies. “Trump has succeeded in bringing China, Russia, India and Brazil together like never before. Indeed, Brics as a grouping has been regalvanised,” Wood observed, underlining a rare moment of alignment among emerging powers.

Despite India’s recent underperformance in emerging markets—its weakest in 15 years—Jefferies remains positive on its long-term prospects. The underperformance, Wood noted, was driven by high valuations and massive equity supply, while peers like Korea and Taiwan surged on sector-specific tailwinds. However, with valuations now back to their 10-year average, he believes the Indian market is poised for a relative rebound.

Jefferies India’s analysis echoes this optimism, highlighting that after every similar slump, Indian equities historically bounce back strongly. “It is now too late to cut India,” Wood emphasised, pointing to the 63% PE premium over emerging market peers returning to sustainable levels.

The strategist also delivered a sharp critique of US foreign policy under Trump, calling it devoid of any coherent framework or guiding principle. “An effective foreign policy requires a conceptual framework—and this is conspicuously lacking in the current US administration,” he said.

By antagonising some of the world’s largest economies simultaneously, Trump may have inadvertently achieved what decades of diplomacy could not: pushing Brics nations closer together and accelerating the global shift away from dollar dominance.

Also Read: US Scraps India Trade Talks: Pressure Tactic or Breakdown in Ties?