Asteroid 2024 YR4 to Wipe Out South Asia? NASA Weighs In

The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has seen a concerning rise, sparking heightened alert among scientists. Initially estimated at a 1% chance, the risk has now increased to 2.3%, raising fears of potential devastation. Experts remain troubled by the lack of precise data regarding the asteroid’s speed and exact size, although estimates suggest it could be up to 200 meters in diameter.

NASA scientists, in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA), have intensified efforts to identify potential impact zones. Their analysis suggests that if asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could unleash energy more powerful than 500 atomic bombs, posing catastrophic consequences for densely populated regions. The estimated risk corridor spans from northern South America across the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

India Among High-Risk Zones

David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey project, has outlined a list of countries that face the highest probability of impact. These include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. While the likelihood of impact remains low, Rankin cautioned that the potential consequences cannot be ignored.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2023, has been classified in the dangerous category and assigned a rating of three on the Torino Scale, a measure used to assess impact hazards. The available trajectory data indicates that the asteroid will pass approximately 106,000 km from Earth on December 22, 2032, with a margin of error extending up to 1.6 million km. However, given the narrow impact strip, even a slight deviation could bring it dangerously close to Earth.

Scientists Prepare for Worst-Case Scenario

Recognizing the threat, NASA has prioritized tracking the asteroid’s movement, while potential mitigation strategies are being explored. Experts stress that early intervention and public awareness are critical should the probability of impact escalate further.

While there is no immediate cause for panic, the scientific community remains vigilant. Further observations and refinements in trajectory calculations in the coming years will determine whether asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a genuine threat or if it will safely bypass Earth. Until then, the world watches and waits.