A team of experts from IIT Kanpur has predicted three likely scenarios of the possible third wave of the Covid pandemic outbbreak across the country over between September and October this year.
"Using SIR model, we have constructed the following three scenarios of a possible third wave using the epidemic parameters of the second wave. We assume that India is fully unlocked on July 15," said the team members Prof Rajesh Ranjan and Prof Mahendra Verma in a statement.
The statement read that as per scenario 1 the third wave will peak in October but with a lower peak height than the second wave.
In Scenario 2 the peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early September while in Scenario 3 the peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict physical distancing. Here too, the peak will be lower than the second wave.
The IIT-Kanpur team in its key observations over the current pandemic situation claimed that the second wave has decreased significantly almost in every state except in some Northeastern states like Mizoram, Manipur and Sikkim.
"India's average daily case count has reduced significantly. As on June 19, it is 63,000 compared to the peak of about 4 lakh. Besides most states have daily Test Positivity Rate (TPR) less than WHO recommended level of 5%. However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya still have high daily TPR of 10% or more," it said.
