From “Abki Baar Trump Sarkar” to “Chini Bhai, Namaste”: Modi’s Geopolitical Tightrope

Once upon a time, in the not-so-distant past, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the poster child of Donald Trump’s election campaign. Remember those surreal rallies where “Abki Baar Trump Sarkar” echoed louder in Houston than in Hazratganj? Back then, Modi and Trump were the international bromance no one saw coming. Fast-forward to today, and that romance has soured faster than overripe mangoes in Delhi’s summer.

Thanks to Washington’s new tariff tantrums and India’s growing warmth with Moscow, America and India are no longer dancing cheek-to-cheek. And in the great geopolitical musical chairs, Modi is being nudged—almost shoved—closer to Beijing, a country India once classified in the same hostile league as Pakistan. The irony is so thick, you could cut it with a Chinese-made knife.

When Friends Turn Frenemies

The uncomfortable truth is this: Modi has run out of levers to pull against Trump. The very leader who once wore “Howdy Modi” as a badge of honour is now treating India less like a strategic partner and more like a tariff punching bag. In diplomacy, as in love, rejection stings the hardest when you thought you were “the one.”

So, where does Modi turn? To China, of course—the same dragon that spat fire at India during Galwan in 2020, at Doklam in 2017, and even way back in 1962. The same China that casually claims Arunachal Pradesh as its own, renames our villages, and is busy building the world’s biggest dam upstream of the Brahmaputra, like a neighbour installing a ticking water bomb above your ceiling. And let’s not forget: barely three months ago, during “Operation Sindoor,” Beijing played both sides—sermonising peace to New Delhi while quietly slipping real-time radar and satellite data to Islamabad.

Yet, here we are, awkwardly extending an olive branch to the dragon, pretending history is just an inconvenient bedtime story.

The Dragon’s Selective Affection

Now, why is Beijing suddenly cooing sweet nothings into New Delhi’s ear? Not because Xi Jinping has discovered a newfound love for Bollywood or masala dosa. China’s motives are clear as daylight: economics and strategy.

First, India’s growing closeness with the US once kept Beijing awake at night. With Washington and New Delhi no longer holding hands, Beijing sees an opening to slip in.

Second, China needs India to stop sulking over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which conveniently runs through disputed Kashmir. Without India’s tacit cooperation—or at least silence—the Belt and Road Initiative looks like a half-built highway.

Third, while China loves Pakistan (to the tune of $68 billion in investments), it knows Pakistan is a loyal but broke friend. India, on the other hand, is an actual market, gobbling up $48 billion worth of Chinese electronics and electrical goods last year alone. Friendship, after all, is sweetest when it fattens the trade ledger.

Modi in Shanghai: Hugging the Dragon, Ignoring the Fire

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, Modi was welcomed with the red-carpet treatment. Smiles were exchanged, handshakes performed, cameras flashed. Xi and Modi spoke warmly of “strengthening bilateral ties.” But in this diplomatic theatre, what was not said screamed louder than what was.

No talk of the Line of Actual Control. No mention of Arunachal. No whisper about Galwan. Tibet, dams, border disputes—neatly swept under the rug. And Pakistan? The dragon’s favourite protégé? Utter silence.

It’s the diplomatic equivalent of a marriage counselling session where the couple smiles politely, discusses the weather, but carefully avoids mentioning the fact that one partner is still texting their ex.

Can China Replace the US?

Let’s be brutally honest: no. China can never be the US for India. It can never give India the same strategic cushioning against Pakistan or Beijing’s own hegemonic ambitions. But right now, Modi doesn’t have the luxury of choice. With Trump slamming tariffs and Russia locked in its own great game with the West, the Prime Minister needs to polish his global image. And nothing polishes faster than hugging a dragon—even if you risk getting scorched.

The Great Irony

The great irony is this: in trying to send a message to Trump, Modi might just be handing Xi a bigger slice of leverage. India may project the optics of strength, but behind the curtain lies a hard truth: at this moment, New Delhi has fewer cards to play than it would like to admit.

So yes, today Beijing looks like India’s “new best friend.” Tomorrow? Who knows. The only certainty in this geopolitical circus is that in the clash of elephants, dragons, and bald eagles, India is forced to dance—sometimes gracefully, sometimes clumsily—just to avoid being trampled.

And if you’re wondering what Modi is thinking while sipping tea with Xi Jinping, here’s a safe guess: “Dosti ho ya dushmani, bas tariff se bacha lo, yaar.”

ALSO READ: Namaste Tariffs! Trump’s New Greeting for His ‘True Friend’ Modi