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Who can forget the century's blooming bromance? The bear hugs, the handshakes, the stadium-sized spectacles in stadiums housing stadium-sized egos? "Howdy, Modi!" in Houston, "Namaste Trump!" in Ahmedabad—the choreographed bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald J. Trump once unfolded like a prime-time written geopolitical romance.
Fast forward to August 2025, and the same Trump, now back in the White House, has slammed a double-barreled 50% tariff on Indian imports. Reason? New Delhi’s stubborn refusal to stop buying oil from Russia. The man who once called Modi “a great gentleman” has now weaponised trade to punish India for acting, quite ironically, in its own national interest.
This is not diplomacy gone wrong. It's a total trade tantrum. And India is not going down without a fight.
Oil, Ego, and Executive Orders
In a traditional Trumpian gesture, the erstwhile reality television personality turned world power broker didn't merely tweet his admonition—he issued an Executive Order. Leaning heavily on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and a pile of national emergency proclamations as legal seasoning, Trump accused India of committing treason against the spirit of American foreign policy by persisting with oil imports from Russia.
The initial 25% tariff, instituted earlier this month, was already biting. The new directive, with an effective date of August 27, adds a further 25%, for a total wallop of 50%. In diplomatic jargon, that's not a slap—it's a body blow.
And the timing couldn't be more melodramatic. Just days before, Trump had ranted on his social site, Truth Social, condemning India for purchasing "enormous quantities" of Russian oil and threatening repercussions within "24 hours." He kept his word—rare that he is for following through on a threat that doesn't involve a golf tourney.
Delhi's Diplomatic Pushback
India's reaction came quickly, sternly, and without hesitation.
This step is unjust, unjustified, and unreasonable," responded MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal in a statement that was half-diplomacy, half-declaration of defiance. "India will do everything necessary to safeguard its national interest."
The message between the lines? We don't break our backs just because Washington growls.
New Delhi has always maintained the view that energy security should not be dictated by world muscle-flexing. In a post-pandemic, war-entangled world, Indian oil import choices are governed by price, availability, and strategic autonomy—not presidential moods.
From Pageantry to Penalty
The irony of the moment is not lost on anyone who has a memory of the Modi-Trump rallies. The two leaders once marched their mutual admiration with a pomp that would make monarchs blush. From brags about "two great democracies" to commiserating their shared disdain for the liberal media, Modi and Trump appeared to be a pair made in geopolitical heaven.
But as it seems, transactional friendships exist only so long as the transaction is reciprocally rewarding.
The current tariff standoff is a reminder—if ever there was one—that Trump's American foreign policy has nothing to do with alliances or friendships. It's about compliance. The minute a partner gets out of line, the hammer drops. In India's situation, that hammer is 50% in duty increases.
The Bigger Game at Play
Make no mistake—this is not merely about oil. Trump's action is also a warning to other countries dabbling in strategic autonomy. The Executive Order even sets out a system for tracking other nations' business with Russia and suggests possible punishment.
To Trump, it's all a negotiation. Trade, war, peace—even friendships.
His own side has astutely packaged this tariff in the rhetoric of national security and emergency legislation, so much so that it challenges opponents to disagree. The challenge for India is economic and political.
On the one side, the tariffs can adversely affect industries that depend on the US market. On the other, there is domestic pressure not to appear to buckle to Trump's bullying. After all, India has always maintained that international energy markets need to be open and non-politicised.
What Now for "Strategic Partnership"?
The Indo-US partnership has always been a delicate dance—strategic when required, guarded when expedient.
With China looming large and the global order in transition, Washington and New Delhi have long seen eye-to-eye on defence and diplomacy.
Trade, however, has been the elephant in the room—usually avoided, sometimes cajoled, now taunted.
Trump's escalating tariffs risks to open up that chasm further. It leaves Modi with a tricky choice—does he maintain India's pragmatic Russian oil buys and invite additional sanctions, or reduce them and mark the country as a supplicant to US pressure?
Neither prospect is pleasant.
The Humour in Hypocrisy
One can’t help but note the hypocrisy laced through this diplomatic showdown. The US, after all, imports from Saudi Arabia and other nations with, let’s say, “flexible” human rights records. But India buying discounted crude from Russia—while condemning the war in Ukraine diplomatically—is suddenly a red line?
And this from the man who, not long ago, dismissed NATO as irrelevant and tried to invite Russia back into the G7?
It's like Donald Trump is playing world policeman, prosecutor, and punisher in one—without bothering to read the fine print of global diplomacy. Except this isn't a boardroom or an episode of "The Apprentice." Countries don't fire other countries. They push back.
And India is definitely getting ready to do just that.
The End of Illusions
If there’s one lesson to be learned from this tariff war, it’s this: grand photo-ops and flattery don’t equal long-term policy alignment.
Modi may still hold sway in global capitals, but Trump is showing he plays by his own chaotic rulebook. The warmth of past summits has been replaced by the chill of protectionist economics.
India has to reset now. Whether it fires back with its own tariffs, goes to the WTO, or doubles down on non-US trade routes, here is one thing for sure: this is not 2019. And there will be no more "Howdy" without hard consequences.
The bromance is over. It's business now. And Trump just raised the price.