Is Akhil Gogoi In or Out? Opposition Alliance at Crossroads

With the 2026 Assembly elections approaching, seat-sharing negotiations between Raijor Dal and the Congress have entered a volatile phase, exposing fault lines that could shape the contours of anti-BJP politics in the state of Assam.
At the centre of the turbulence is Raijor Dal chief and Sivasagar MLA Akhil Gogoi, who has made it clear that patience within his party is running thin.

Raijor Dal has sought 15 seats, down from its original demand of 27, in what Gogoi describes as a significant compromise for the sake of alliance unity. However, according to him, while Congress has indicated willingness to offer 13 seats, only four are considered “winnable” by his party.
“There is no use in giving us seats where we cannot compete seriously,” he stated.
Speaking to the media on February 21, Gogoi said, Whether or not Congress concedes the seats Raijor Dal has demanded, the party remains confident of victory in its identified constituencies.

“Whether they give us the seats or not, we will win in the constituencies we have demanded. Surveys show we are ahead.” 
The most contentious aspect of the negotiations revolves around Upper Assam, which is a politically sensitive terrain where indigenous tribes and communities play a decisive role across nearly 30 of the state’s 126 Assembly constituencies.
Moreover, Gogoi has specifically named Dhemaji, Demow, Mariani and Sissiborgaon as critical to Raijor Dal’s electoral strategy. “If we are not given seats in Upper Assam, there will be problems,” signalling that denial of these constituencies could jeopardise the alliance.

The party claims sustained grassroots engagement in several Upper Assam seats and insists it cannot abandon long-standing workers and local leaders by accepting “unrelated” constituencies merely to formalise a deal.
“We cannot demoralise our core leadership. If we are not given the constituencies where we have been working, it will only be for show,” Gogoi said.

Congress Calls for Shared Sacrifice

On the other side of the negotiating table, Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president Gaurav Gogoi has advocated what he describes as a calibrated approach to alliance-building.
Following a high-level meeting in New Delhi with senior leaders, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Gaurav emphasised that defeating the BJP requires compromise from all stakeholders.

“Two steps they have to take, and we will take two steps. Our priority has to be winning maximum seats,” he said, adding that Congress has already made substantial sacrifices.
According to Gaurav Gogoi, the Congress has “left many important seats” for alliance considerations and cannot be expected to shoulder the burden of adjustment alone. “Every party has to sacrifice. Congress cannot sacrifice alone. We sacrificed more than expected,” he maintained.

Earlier statements suggesting that Congress would contest around 100 seats before allocating the rest to allies had reportedly irked smaller parties. Party insiders now say the seat-sharing formula remains under discussion, with talks in their final stages.
Minority Seats and Mutual Distrust

Beyond geography, minority-dominated constituencies have also become a point of friction. Akhil  has alleged that Congress behaves as though all minority seats are its “inherited property.” 
“We respected the views of their senior leaders, but they have not listened to us at all,” he stated, accusing Congress of revisiting points that had previously been agreed upon.
He also pointed to internal Congress dynamics as a complicating factor. “Congress leaders have their own preferred candidates,” he said.

Earlier, Raijor Dal had sent what Akhil described as a “final letter” to Congress, seeking clarity. “If the response is positive, good. Otherwise, we will have to take a call.

The fragility of the Congress, Raijor Dal talks have wider implications. The Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), led by Lurinjyoti Gogoi, has also urged Congress to finalise seat-sharing before it becomes “too late.” AJP leaders have stressed that understanding and sacrifice are essential if the opposition hopes to mount a credible challenge.

Meanwhile, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has added another layer of complexity. Party chief Badruddin Ajmal has indicated that AIUDF may contest 25 seats independently if excluded from any broader opposition arrangement. Even the Asom Gana Parishad is reportedly engaged in internal discussions over potential seat adjustments.

Unity or Unravelling?

Despite the sharp exchanges, neither Raijor Dal nor Congress has formally walked away from the table. Gogoi himself acknowledged that the alliance has not yet broken down and that friendly contests in two constituencies have already been agreed upon.
Yet the underlying message from both sides is unmistakable: time is running out.

With organisational preparations for 2026 gradually intensifying, the opposition faces a strategic dilemma: persist with uneasy negotiations or risk contesting separately and splitting votes in a state where margins can be razor-thin.
For now, both parties continue to speak the language of unity, but with unmistakable undertones of mistrust. The coming weeks may well determine whether Assam’s opposition crafts a workable electoral arithmetic or unravels under the weight of competing ambitions.

Also Read: Guwahati: Raijor Dal Holds Urgent Executive Meeting Amid Alliance Controversies