Key Takeaways From This BTC Election—From UPPL-BJP Debacle to Congress Mistakes

Hagrama Mohilary is back, and how! With his signature rhetorical style, the man who had previously led the BTC has returned after a five-year gap. Notably, both UPPL and BJP suffered losses despite extensive campaigns, including efforts from none other than CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. Meanwhile, Congress was all but wiped out.

The landslide victory of the BPF demands careful analysis, especially given that the CM had repeatedly declared that BJP would win BTR this time. What went wrong, and what factors favoured the BPF?

BPF Gained Support Across Communities

This is BPF’s defining success and probably the key reason behind its landslide victory—28 out of 40 seats. Analyzing the constituencies won by BPF reveals that the party secured victories in many Bodo-majority areas such as Soraibil, Kachugaon, Dotma (where UPPL chief Pramod Boro was defeated), Banargaon, Debargaon, Chirang, Nichima, Khwirwbari, Harisinga, Bhairabkunda, Salakati, and Baokhungri, among others. Clearly, the Bodos in BTR favoured BPF over other parties.

But BPF didn’t just perform well in Bodo-majority areas—it also won seats reserved for non-ST candidates as well as open seats. Non-ST reserved seats are essentially meant for non-tribals, while open seats allow anyone to contest. BPF won Fakiragram, Nonwi Serfang, and Pasnwi Serfang (reserved for non-ST candidates) and Dihira and Mathanguri under the open category.

Moreover, BPF registered victories in constituencies with mixed demographics, including Bodos, Assamese, Adivasis, Bengali speakers, Muslims, and others.

While UPPL also managed to win some Bodo-dominated constituencies such as Chirang Duar (where BPF chief Hagrama Mohilary was defeated by Kampa Bargyary of UPPL), Mushalpur, and Bhergaon, the party was heavily affected by allegations of widespread corruption. Whether in distributing beneficiary schemes or offering other opportunities, UPPL—despite leading BTC for the past five years with support from Assam’s ruling BJP—failed to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments.

Subtle but significant factors also worked against UPPL. Party leaders’ statements suggesting that residents of BTR would need documents from 1947 or earlier to claim land ownership created widespread apprehension. In contrast, Hagrama Mohilary clarified that those who had been residing in BTR until the enactment of the BTC Accord (February 2003) would be eligible for land rights—an assurance that reassured many.

Did BJP Truly Oppose UPPL?

During the campaigns, CM Sarma repeatedly criticized UPPL, claiming that beneficiary schemes didn’t reach eligible people due to UPPL’s corrupt functioning. He promised a “triple engine” government—at the centre, state, and BTR—if BJP came to power. One might assume his bold statements aimed to capitalize on anti-incumbency against UPPL and redirect votes toward BJP.

However, Prabeen Baro, vice-president of UPPL and a key strategist for BPF, disagrees. He stated, “The alliance is still intact. BJP didn’t field a candidate in Debargaon to let Hagrama Mohilary win; it was meant to support UPPL, but it didn’t work. Similarly, BJP didn’t contest Goibari to ensure Pramod Boro’s victory. They know UPPL couldn’t have won some seats without BJP support, like Srirampur. BJP’s main target is the 2026 assembly elections.”

Other Factors at Play

While anti-incumbency toward UPPL and BJP’s attempts to capitalize on it didn’t benefit either party, BPF successfully consolidated Bodo votes. The BTC and BTR accords played a significant role. The BTR Accord, signed in 2020, promised a ₹1,500 crore package, giving leverage to UPPL and BJP. In contrast, the BTC Accord of 2003, signed by Hagrama Mohilary, carried greater significance for the people.

Many Bodo voters viewed promises under the BTR Accord as gimmicks, while comments from BJP leaders created apprehension. BJP state president Dilip Saikia’s remarks on tribal belts and blocks, 6th Schedule provisions, and CM Sarma’s comments targeting VCDCs caused concern. As Prabeen Baro noted, “The Bodo people became cautious. The 6th Schedule was earned through long and bloody struggles, and VCDCs were protected under the BTC Accord. Moreover, 16 departments under BTC were returned to the state government during BJP-UPPL rule. The BTC Accord served the people; the BTR Accord didn’t deliver meaningful results.”

Bodo voters thus preferred BPF, seeking a party in BTC that wouldn’t rely on Delhi or Dispur for every decision.

Congress Mistakes

Although Congress performed poorly, its mistakes are worth noting. The party neither attempted an alliance with BPF nor projected a friendly approach, fielding candidates for all seats. During campaigns, Congress attacked UPPL, BJP, and BPF in equal measure, even portraying BPF as a hidden ally of BJP. A more strategic approach—maintaining distance from BPF and exploring potential alliances—could have opened possibilities for 2026.

Also Read: BTR Polls: Gaurav Gogoi Thanks Congress Workers, Calls Result a Rejection of BJP