Who Will Smile The Last Smile In Bihar?  Beyond The Exit Poll Statistics

Sandeep Saurav is the MLA of Paliganj constituency and this time too he is a contender from the same place. Sandeep told us that he is sure of a victory this time too, but with an even bigger margin than in 2020. He also believes that the united opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) will become the victor this time. A young MLA of Bihar, who is widely known in the state to have taken up the issue of unemployment of youth and irregularities in government appointment, he believes that the escalating poverty and unemployment in Bihar are the crucial issues this time.

Not only Sandeep Saurav, even the MGB CM face, Tejashwi Yadav of RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) has declared that the opposition unity will form the government this time. Mr. Yadav, dismissing the EXIT poll predictions showing a thumping majority of NDA, said in a presser that these started coming in even when people were queuing to vote.

The results are indeed going to be exciting and it may defy the statistics of the EXIT Polls. Even if NDA smiles the last smile, the margin may be slender. And MGB winning it may not be something unimaginable. Small factors, local level issues, local level anti-incumbencies, little disruption in caste equations sometimes have profound impact in electoral results.

Well, we all know what the EXIT polls have predicted about Bihar election results. The question is what are the conditions that help NDA will sweeping the election and if the MGB has to win, then what conditions will have to favour them?

‘Nitish Kumar’ Or NDA?

Its not NDA or BJP, but CM Nitish Kumar himself, that remains popular in Bihar with no significant anti-incumbency against him even after in the top post for the past two decades. Lately, there had been some kind of sympathy to Nitish Kumar after the PM Modi’s roadshow in Patna where Nitish was excluded. Although JDU leaders like Lallan Singh were present in the rally, common perception amongst the people of Bihar is that he is more of a BJP than JDU. So, Lallan Singh’s presence in Modi’s Patna rally could not compensate the absence of Nitish Kumar. The BJP, moreover, was reluctant to announce Nitish as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate at the initial stage.

The Caste Dynamics

However, BJP’s caste dynamics remains mostly intact in Bihar with upper castes lenient towards it. The share of OBC votes in BJP’s account has also remained the same. 

On the other hand, the EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) and other factions of OBC like Kurmis form the backbone of JDU’s caste equation. Nitish belongs to Kurmi community.

The EBC contains mostly the backward castes, a section that Nitish carved out in 2007 that are mostly OBCs. This was a political move of Nitish Kumar to diminish RJD’s hegemony over the OBC voters and has kept the section with him since then. Notably, the EBCs constitute a profound 36% of Bihar’s voters.

And on the account of the MGB, the Yadavs, Muslims and factions of other castes are consolidated. The Kushwahas, another dominant caste (OBC) of Bihar are traditionally split in their voting pattern between RJD and JDU, like, in the Magadh region (south Bihar), they chose RJD but in North Bihar they go for others (JDU & BJP).

The Dalit voters are also split. It remains still unclear what share will go to MGB’s account as Chirag Paswan, son of former LJP supremo and union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, is directly with NDA this time.

Will Mukesh Sahani Help MGB?

The VIP (Vikassheel Insaan Party) leader Mukesh Sahani has been projected as the deputy CM face by MGB. Sahani belongs to ‘Malla’ caste that belongs to EBC. The Mallas have a vote share of nearly 2.6% in Bihar, but the scattered population across constituencies marks importance of the caste. According to Sandeep Saurav, in large number of constituencies, Mallas have nearly 5000 votes, making them a key player in electoral politics. 
Declaring Sahani as the deputy CM may have some edge for the MGB, especially amongst the Malla voters. 

Women Love Nitish, While Youths Rage Over Unemployment 

It’s a cliché that caste plays a pivotal role in Bihar’s electoral politics. However, that is not the end; there are sectional votes that may have an overwhelming impact. Such is the women section and like they voted in the past elections of Bihar, especially during Nitish regime, they are tilted towards Nitish this time too. 

Experts that we have spoken to opined that Women still haven’t lost their love for Nitish and this is because his policies like giving reservations in local bodies (50% in Panchayat), govt, jobs (35%) and of course the freebies schemes. The women voting for Nitish goes beyond the caste equations, they say. The announcement of 10,000 rupees to women just few days prior to the declaration of elections dates was the final touch. Moreover, women voter turnout largely outnumbers the males, which also have happened this time too.

On the other side, the largest chunk of Bihar’s population, the youths are enraged over the escalating unemployment and massive irregularities in appointments. This is where the MGB has an edge over. Massive participation of young boys in Tejashwi’s rallies was a true reflection of it. 

Then What Can Help MGB?

From what have been discussed above, it appears that results of this election too will show the previous trend, more so, it will align with the EXIT poll predictions.  However, there always remains some ‘BUT’s and this time too, there are several for which the MGB can see a hope.

First is the genuine consolidation of Yadav and Muslims voters in favour of MGB. Earlier, the Yadav votes also got split—in those seats without RJD candidates, the Yadav votes went to other parties outside the MGB like BJP or JDU. In this election, this split can be expected to be minimized, an obvious positive for the MGB.

Second is, there can be a shift in EBC votes as well. Apart from Mukesh Sahani, the other factor that may help MGB is that in the seats without JDU candidates, the EBC votes are expected to get split—they may choose a candidate from the MGB rather than choosing someone from other parties of NDA. Skyrocketing prices, unemployment, poverty are the foremost factors that will have an impact.

Third is the Youth section. They have a proclivity to vote on issues rather than caste equation. The voter turnout from this section is enthusiastic too.

ALSO READ: “EXIT Polls Came Before Polling Ended”, Tejashwi Yadav Dismissed Predictions, Affirms MGB Victory