As the electoral battleground in Assam shifts to the migrant-heavy constituencies for the upcoming phases, the BJP finds itself navigating a complex political terrain. Initially confident after the phase 1 elections in the state's five indigenous-heavy Lok Sabha seats, the BJP now confronts a formidable challenge in the remaining nine constituencies.
The focus now turns to constituencies where Bangladesh-origin Muslim migrant voters wield significant influence, except for the tribal-reserved seat of Diphu.
Voting in Darrang-Udalguri, Diphu, Karimganj, Silchar, and Nagaon are underway today, while Kokrajhar, Dhubri, Barpeta, and Guwahati will follow on May 7.
Leading the charge for BJP in Assam is Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has been vigorously campaigning in these migrant-dominated areas. CM Sarma asserts, "Times have changed. In the last 10 years, the mindset of people (Bangladesh-origin Muslims) has changed. These people have realized that BJP is not their enemy."
Highlighting the shifting dynamics, he added, "Neither the Emergency nor UPA’s corruption could sink Congress here. But this time, Congress will not be able to escape the Modi wave."
A significant development in BJP's support base is the inclusion of Bangladesh-origin Muslim women, according to party claims. The Assam Chief Minister emphasized, "People know their vote can protect our minority sisters from the bane of polygamy and child marriage."
Recent rallies in key constituencies have showcased BJP's growing influence among Bangladesh-origin Muslim voters. In Nagaon, where this demographic comprises over 51% of the electorate, CM Sarma's rally witnessed a massive turnout, prompting him to remark, "Outside Assam, no one will believe that 50,000 Muslims went to a BJP election meeting."
However, challenges persist in constituencies like Barak Valley's Karimganj and Silchar, where Muslim populations exceed 60% and 40%, respectively. Guwahati also boasts a sizable Bangladesh-origin Muslim electorate exceeding 25%.
In this multifaceted electoral arena, BJP locks horns with Congress, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), and Trinamool Congress (TMC). Nagaon, Karimganj, and Dhubri witness three-way battles among BJP, Congress, and AIUDF, while Silchar sees BJP, Congress, and TMC in contention. Darrang-Udalguri hosts a tripartite tussle between BJP, Congress, and Bodoland People's Front (BPF), bolstered by AIUDF support.
Guwahati presents a direct confrontation between Congress and BJP, while Barpeta witnesses an AGP versus Congress versus Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) showdown.
Meanwhile, voting is underway in five Lok Sabha seats in Assam on Friday. As of 11 am, the voter turnout stood at 27.43 %. While Diphu leads the chart with 30.82 %, Karimganj is trailing just behind with 29.99 %.
