People’s Pulse Survey Predicts BJP Hat-Trick in Assam, NDA may bag Near 90 Seats

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is firmly on course to secure a third consecutive term in Assam, with the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) projected to win close to 90 seats in the 126-member Assembly, according to a Tracker Poll released by People’s Pulse Research Organization.

The survey, conducted between November 15 and December 31, 2025, places the BJP as the single largest party with an estimated 69 to 74 seats well above the majority mark of 64 allowing it to form the government independently. NDA allies are expected to further strengthen the coalition, pushing its overall tally to around 90 seats.

Political analyst Dr. Rajan Pandey, Director of People’s Pulse, said the findings reflect the BJP’s expanding voter base and a fragmented opposition. “The BJP’s dominance is not limited to incumbency advantage. The party has consolidated its support across communities while the opposition remains divided and weak,” he said.

Opposition Struggles, Smaller Parties Face Marginalisation

The Congress is projected to emerge as the main opposition with 25–29 seats, while NDA partners Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) are expected to win 8–11 and 8–10 seats respectively. Smaller parties such as AIUDF, UPPL, Raijor Dal, AJP and CPI(M) are predicted to make minimal gains, with most likely restricted to one or two seats at best.

Vote-share estimates show a narrow contest between BJP and Congress, with BJP projected at 39% and Congress at 37%. However, the survey notes that delimitation, organisational strength and alliance arithmetic heavily favour the NDA, translating modest vote margins into substantial seat advantages.

CM Preference Poll Shows Tight Contest

In the chief ministerial preference race, incumbent CM Himanta Biswa Sarma leads narrowly with 30% support, followed closely by former CM Sarbananda Sonowal at 28%. Congress MP and APCC president Gaurav Gogoi trails closely at 27%, indicating strong personal appeal despite his party’s broader organisational challenges.

Dr. Pandey noted that while Gogoi remains popular, particularly among younger voters, his appeal has not translated into equivalent support for Congress at the constituency level.

Public Mood Favors Continuity

The survey reveals strong public backing for the BJP on governance parameters. Nearly half of the respondents said the BJP is better suited for Assam’s development, while a majority predicted another NDA government and supported giving the BJP another term.

According to the report, welfare schemes, sustained electoral victories since 2021, and outreach among tribal, OBC and women voters have helped the NDA consolidate and expand its base.

Community and Regional Trends

Muslim voters are increasingly shifting towards Congress following the decline of AIUDF, particularly in Barak Valley and Lower Assam. However, the impact of delimitation and NDA’s alliance with BPF has tilted key regions in favour of the ruling coalition.

The NDA is expected to dominate Upper Assam and tribal belts, while sweeping the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD). Barak Valley and Lower Assam are also projected to favour the NDA due to reduced opposition consolidation.

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