Above-Normal Rainfall Likely in September 2025: IMD Outlook

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which comes under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has released its Monthly Outlook for September 2025, indicating above-normal rainfall over the majority of the country, besides mixed trends in temperature. 

Rainfall Outlook

As per IMD, the September 2025 average monthly rainfall over India as a whole is likely to be more than normal at over 109% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 167.9 mm (using 1971–2020 data).

The majority of parts of the nation are likely to get normal to excess rainfall. But a few areas in Northeast and East India, some parts of extreme South Peninsular India, and a few pockets in the northernmost part of India can experience below-normal rainfall.

IMD emphasized that although increased rainfall would have positive impacts on water resources and agriculture, it has the potential to cause flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health problems, and harm to ecosystems. The department recommended reinforcing infrastructure, utilization of early warnings, enhanced surveillance, conservation practices, and strong response systems within vulnerable sectors.

Temperature Outlook

Maximum Temperature: Monthly average maximum temperature is set to stay normal to below normal in most areas of west-central, northwest, and south India during September 2025. However, above-normal maximum temperature is predicted over east-central, eastern, and northeastern India, northwestern parts of northwest India, and the west coastal area.

Minimum Temperature: Normal to above-normal monthly average minimum temperatures are anticipated for the majority of the country. Subnormal minimum temperatures are expected over some areas of northwest India and southern peninsular India.

Oceanic Conditions

Presently, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are dominating the equatorial Pacific. Predictions by IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that these neutral conditions will continue until the monsoon season concludes.

In the Indian Ocean, there are neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions at present. Weak negative IOD conditions are, however, likely to emerge towards the later part of the monsoon season and last for a short duration.

Forecasting Systems

IMD has been making monthly and seasonal forecasts of the southwest monsoon since 2021 based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system. This methodology combines prediction from coupled global climate models (CGCMs) of different global research organizations, including IMD's MMCFS.

The department had previously provided predictions for the 2025 southwest monsoon on April 15, updated on May 27, and then individual outlooks for June, July, and August. The current September outlook is the most recent in this sequence.

Extended Forecast Services

IMD also issues extended range forecasts (seven-day averaged forecasts for the forthcoming four weeks), revised weekly on Thursdays, based on its dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System. Short to medium range forecasts are also issued on a daily basis. These are available through IMD's official website. 

Looking Ahead

IMD stated that the forecast of the Northeast Monsoon season (October–December 2025) and the rain and temperature outlook for the month of October will be released towards the end of September.

Also Read: IMD Forecast: Northeast Monsoon Activity to Peak in First Week of August