IMD Forecast: Northeast Monsoon Activity to Peak in First Week of August

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued forecasts indicating an active monsoon phase over the next two weeks, with Northeast India expected to see a surge in rainfall intensity from late July through the first week of August. While central and western parts of the country have already experienced extremely heavy showers, the upcoming systems will shift significant rain activity towards eastern and northeastern states.

Rainfall Summary (Week Ending July 23, 2025)

• Central & Northern India: A land depression that developed over southeast Uttar Pradesh on July 17 brought very heavy to extremely heavy rains to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and East Uttar Pradesh before weakening over west Rajasthan by July 21.

• Other Regions:

  • Northeast India: Assam, Meghalaya, and parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal recorded isolated extremely heavy rainfall on July 20.

  • South India: Coastal Karnataka saw similar intense showers on July 17.

• Temperature Trends: Maximum temperatures were 2–4°C above normal over parts of east and northeast India, while northwest regions experienced cooler-than-normal conditions.

Forecast for Northeast India

Week 1: July 24 – 30

• Rainfall Pattern:

  • Light to moderate rain across most northeastern states.

  • Heavy to very heavy showers expected on July 26 in Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Tripura.

• Associated Risks: Potential for localized flooding, waterlogging, and landslides, particularly in hilly terrain and riverine areas.

Week 2: July 31 – August 6

• Increased Activity:
  A likely cyclonic circulation over East India will enhance monsoon strength. The IMD predicts fairly widespread to widespread rain across Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Tripura.

• Rainfall Intensity: Isolated very heavy falls are probable on multiple days, raising concerns for river swelling and flash floods.

• Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to normalize, reducing current heat stress in parts of Assam and Nagaland.

National Monsoon Highlights

• Central India: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha will face extremely heavy rainfall between July 24–28 due to a depression forming over the Bay of Bengal.

• West India: Maharashtra, Goa, and Gujarat regions will see very heavy rains and strong winds during the same period.

• Northwest India: Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh are forecast to receive moderate to heavy rainfall, with isolated very heavy showers in East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh.

• South Peninsular States: Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana remain under advisories for heavy rain and strong surface winds (40–50 km/h).

Climatic Drivers

• Neutral ENSO Conditions: Stable monsoon patterns are expected.

• Weak Negative IOD: May slightly reduce rainfall over southern regions but not affect the Northeast’s forecasted surge.

• Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): Currently favorable for stronger convection over the Bay of Bengal, which is likely to feed moisture into the eastern and northeastern states.

Analysis and Preparedness

• Flood Risks in the Northeast:
  States like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura must prepare for river level rises, flash floods, and potential landslides.

• Agriculture: While the rains will aid paddy cultivation, excessive waterlogging could threaten crops in low-lying fields.

• Infrastructure Concerns: Anticipated downpours may disrupt road and rail connectivity, especially in hilly districts.

Also Read: Assam Swelters: Will the Rains Arrive Before the Heat Breaks Us?