The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall 2024.
According to the IMD, the 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).
Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
Currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season.
The northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The northern hemisphere snow cover areas during January to March 2024 were observed to be below normal. The expected La Nina, positive IOD, and below-normal snow cover over northern hemisphere would be favorable for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, in 2024.
The IMD stated that they will issue updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2024.
