India Launches World's Most Accurate Weather Model: Bharat Forecasting System

In a major technological breakthrough, India has launched the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) — the world’s highest-resolution weather model, capable of delivering highly localised forecasts on a 6-kilometre grid. Announced on Monday, this system marks a significant leap in India’s meteorological capabilities and climate resilience.

Developed by a team of Indian researchers including Parthasarathy Mukhopadhyay, the BFS is designed to improve forecasting accuracy for small-scale weather phenomena. It aims to provide precise weather predictions up to the panchayat level, supporting disaster risk reduction, agriculture, water resource management, and public safety.

The BFS was made possible by the installation of ‘Arka’, a state-of-the-art supercomputer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. With a computational speed of 11.77 petaflops and 33 petabytes of storage, Arka significantly reduces forecasting time. "While the earlier system 'Pratyush' took nearly 10 hours, Arka completes model runs in just four hours," said Mukhopadhyay.

Union Minister of Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh officially dedicated the BFS to the nation at a ceremony in New Delhi.

According to Ministry Secretary M. Ravichandran, the new model utilises data from 40 Doppler Weather Radars across India, offering ultra-local forecasts within 6 km x 6 km grids — a major improvement over previous 12 km resolution models. The Doppler network is set to expand to 100 radars, enabling real-time nowcasting — short-term weather predictions for the next two hours — across the entire country.

The BFS will primarily cover the tropical region between 30° South and 30° North, including the Indian subcontinent. In comparison, international weather models from the US, UK, and Europe operate at lower resolutions of 9 to 14 km, making BFS the most advanced of its kind globally.

The launch of this cutting-edge system comes at a time when climate change and extreme weather events are increasingly impacting India's economy. According to the Economic Survey 2024, erratic weather patterns have played a major role in rising food inflation, with crop damage in 2024 surpassing previous years, as reported by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).

Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows a significant rise in the frequency of heatwaves — from 5% of days in 2020-21 to 18% in 2022-24. The Survey recommends the development of climate-resilient crops, better weather data infrastructure, and strategies to reduce crop damage and post-harvest losses.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest bulletin, also flagged weather anomalies as key drivers of vegetable price volatility, stressing the urgent need for temperature-resistant crop varieties. While the inflation outlook has improved, the RBI warned that climate-related and global risks remain persistent challenges.

With the Bharat Forecasting System, India has taken a significant step towards becoming a global leader in weather prediction, offering more accurate, faster, and granular forecasts to help safeguard lives, secure food production, and strengthen the country's climate resilience.

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