India’s Civil Aviation Industry Set for Major Growth, Passenger Traffic to Increase by 80%

India's civil aviation industry is poised for significant growth, with new government projections indicating that air passenger traffic will rise by 80% over the next five years. From 222 million passenger journeys in 2023-24, traffic is expected to reach nearly 400 million by 2028-29, highlighting a post-pandemic surge in demand.

This rapid growth underscores the need for a corresponding expansion in infrastructure, including airports, air corridors, and tarmac facilities. The size of India’s commercial-aircraft fleet is projected to grow from 813 to 1,300 aircraft by 2028-29, pushing the overall airport handling capacity from 550 million to 800 million passengers annually. This growth will stretch logistical capabilities significantly within a short timeframe.

The recovery of India’s aviation market has been faster than many others globally. By the end of 2023, global air travel had rebounded to 94.1% of pre-pandemic levels, with India’s domestic travel exceeding 2019 levels on certain routes. Strong consumer demand, a renewed appetite for mobility, and the return of the middle class as a key driver of aviation consumption have all contributed to this rapid rebound.

New airline entrants, such as Akasa Air, have increased capacity and routes, while legacy carriers like Air India are undergoing significant fleet and service overhauls. The planned revival of Jet Airways, although delayed, indicates continued commercial interest in the Indian aviation sector.

Maharashtra is set to experience a surge in aircraft movements, with airports like Aurangabad, Kolhapur, and Pune expected to collectively manage almost 130,000 aircraft movements annually by 2029. Pune, a major business and education hub, is forecast to handle over 114,000 movements, which will present challenges regarding runway capacity and passenger infrastructure.

To support this growth, 21 new Greenfield airports have been approved for development across the country, with 12 already operational, including airports in Shirdi, Sindhudurg, and Navi Mumbai. The Navi Mumbai International Airport, in particular, is one of the most anticipated projects, as it is expected to help alleviate congestion at the overcrowded Mumbai airport and serve as a major western gateway.

The UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) scheme is driving regional development, with a focus on underserved airports. In Maharashtra, Amravati and Ratnagiri are among the cities identified for UDAN expansion. While Amravati already has regulatory clearance for scheduled flights, Ratnagiri’s airport is still under construction.

As India’s aviation infrastructure expands, there are challenges related to scaling supporting systems such as air traffic control, baggage handling, and ground transport. However, these developments hold the promise of a more connected and potentially more affordable future for air travel. Increased competition between airlines could lead to lower fares, and as more cities are linked to the national air network, flying may become a more accessible, time-efficient option for travelers, even in tier 2 and 3 cities.

The coming decade will see India’s skies becoming busier, with longer runways, more inclusive boarding calls, and more destinations for both new passengers and established travelers.

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