Southwest Monsoon Breaks In 8 Days Early Over Kerala; Northeast Set for More Rain

The Southwest Monsoon has officially set in over Kerala today, May 24, 2025, marking its arrival eight days ahead of the usual onset date of June 1.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this early onset is the earliest since 2009, when the monsoon arrived on May 23. Historically, the earliest recorded onset over Kerala occurred on May 19, 1990—13 days prior to the normal date. Alongside Kerala, the monsoon has also advanced into some parts of Mizoram as of today.

The current Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) extends through 13°N/55°E, 13°N/60°E, 13.5°N/65°E, 15°N/70°E, Karwar, Shimoga, Dharmapuri, Chennai, 15°N/83°E, 18°N/87°E, Saiha, 25°N/96°E, and 27°N/98°E.

Meteorological conditions are favorable for further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon into additional parts of the northeastern states over the next two to three days. A cyclonic circulation currently lies over Manipur and its surrounding areas at 3.1 km above mean sea level, while an earlier upper air cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam at 1.5 km has become less marked.

According to available data, light to moderate rain was recorded at many locations across Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, and Mizoram, while a few areas in Assam, Meghalaya, and Nagaland also experienced similar rainfall. Tripura saw light rain at isolated locations. Notably, isolated heavy rainfall occurred in Assam during the past 24 hours. Daytime temperatures showed a marked increase in Mizoram and an appreciable rise in Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Manipur, while remaining largely unchanged in Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura. Temperatures were above normal in Assam and near normal elsewhere in the region.

Chief Amount of Rainfall (in cm): Lakhimpur (ARG) – 11, Kolasib (AWS) – 2, Shillong – 2, Koloraing (ARG) – 2, Lamsang (ARG) – 2, Bomdila (AWS) – 2, Mawryngkneng (ARG) – 2, Kiphire (AWS) – 2, Kiphire – 2, Sainik School (ARG) – 2, Barapani – 2, Dirang (AWS) – 2, Lowertato (AWS) – 1, Yachuli (ARG) – 1, Yazali (ARG) – 1, Daporijo (AWS) – 1, Pungro (ARG) – 1, Hatsingimari (AWS) – 1, NEHU (ARG) – 1, Dirang (ARG) – 1, Lamang_2 (AWS) – 1, Kibithu – 1, Lengpui – 1, KLHEP (AWS) – 1, Sonamura – 1, Palin (ARG) – 1, Seijosa (AWS) – 1, Tawang – 1.

Weather Forecast for the Next Five Days:

• Day 1: Moderate rain is very likely at most places over Manipur and Mizoram, many places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, and Nagaland, and at a few places over Tripura. A 2-3°C drop in maximum temperatures is likely across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.

• Day 2: Moderate rain is expected at most places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, and Mizoram; at many locations over Nagaland; and at a few places in Tripura. No significant change in maximum temperatures is forecasted.

• Day 3: Moderate rainfall is very likely at most places across Assam, Meghalaya, and Mizoram, and at many locations in Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Tripura. No major temperature changes are expected.

• Day 4: Moderate rain is likely at many locations across all seven northeastern states. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain stable.

• Day 5: Conditions will remain similar, with moderate rain anticipated at many places in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, along with steady temperatures.

Weather Warnings:

• Day 1:

  1. Thunderstorm and lightning with gusty winds up to 40-50 km/h likely at isolated places in Assam and Tripura.

  2. Thunderstorm and lightning with winds up to 30-40 km/h likely at isolated locations in Manipur and Mizoram.

  3. Thunderstorm and lightning expected at isolated places in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Nagaland.

  4. Heavy rainfall likely at isolated areas in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, and Tripura.

• Day 2:

  1. Thunderstorm and lightning with gusty winds up to 30-40 km/h likely in isolated places over Assam, Manipur, and Mizoram.

  2. Thunderstorm and lightning likely in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Tripura.

  3. Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Manipur.

• Day 3:

  1. Thunderstorm and lightning with winds up to 30-40 km/h likely in Manipur and Mizoram.

  2. Thunderstorm and lightning expected in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Tripura.

  3. Isolated heavy rainfall likely in all northeastern states.

• Day 4:

  1. Thunderstorm and lightning likely at isolated places throughout the region.

  2. Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected at isolated locations in Mizoram.

  3. Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, and Tripura.

• Day 5:

  1. Thunderstorm and lightning very likely across the northeastern region.

  2. Heavy to very heavy rain expected in Mizoram.

  3. Isolated heavy rain likely across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, and Tripura.

Local Weather Forecast for Guwahati and Neighbourhood (7-Day Outlook):

• Day 1: Partly cloudy with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Max: 34°C, Min: 25°C

• Day 2: Partly cloudy with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Max: 33°C, Min: 25°C

• Day 3: Partly cloudy with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Max: 33°C, Min: 25°C

• Day 4: Partly cloudy with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Max: 33°C, Min: 25°C

• Day 5: Partly cloudy with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Max: 33°C, Min: 24°C

• Day 6: Rain or thunderstorm likely. Max: 31°C, Min: 24°C

• Day 7: Rain or thunderstorm likely. Max: 31°C, Min: 24°C

As the Southwest Monsoon progresses rapidly through the northeastern states and parts of peninsular India, residents are advised to stay updated with local weather bulletins and take necessary precautions against thunderstorms, lightning, and heavy rain forecasts.

Also Read: Guwahati Weather Live Updates: Heavy Rains Disrupt City; IMD Issues 72-Hour Alert