Drought Or Rainlessness, How Assam Agricultural University Sees The Future?

"For a small farmer like me, paddy is the main source of emergency mitigation, to earn a little by selling it in the market. A scarce paddy in our granary indicates a frightful year. This year, with the heavily deficient rainfall and an absence of water supply in the fields, our land will remain barren as the transplantation time for the Ranjit rice is nearly over” - sighed Sanjay Barman, a farmer from Bajali in lower Assam. Sanjay’s version reflects that of thousands of farmers across Assam who look into the sky every day, hoping for the rain.

This year is rather unusual for Assam’s farmers as a prolonged dry spell has gripped the state. With 43% overall deficiency of rain, they fear losing their paddies. Some districts, especially in lower Assam, are in a serious crisis due to the situation.

Not only this year, but a decreasing trend of July rainfall has been observed over Assam in the past few years, which falls in the peak season of paddy seedlings’ transplantation to the main field. Sanjay also added that his paddy cultivation ended in a decline in the past year. However, the drought-like situation last year persisted for a brief period and so as for past few consecutive years. This year it has turned out to be a prolonged Phase, since mid June to July end that has put the farmers in even more trouble. 

Well, whether Assam is heading towards a shift in its weather pattern and if so how intricately it is related to the global climatic phenomenon is yet to be researched and established. But, Assam Agricultural University (AAU) has some plans assessing the reality of such situations occurring more frequently in the future.

Dr. Sanjay Chetia, the director of research (agri.) of the Assam Agricultural University (AAU) told Pratidin Time that a drought resistant variety of rice has already been developed and is expected to reach farmers soon. The variety named as AAU TTB dhan 45 has passed university’s approval and the government notification in this regard is expected to come very shortly. Dr. Chetia also let us know that seed production of AAU TTB dhan 45 is done at the Rice research Institute of Titabar, Jorhat. 

Dr. Chetia, agreed that there is a decreasing trend of rainfall during the peak season of paddy cultivation (July) and said that there are a variety of rice being developed by AAU and in addition other food crop varieties. 
“During the last five years AAU has developed 24 varieties of crops not restricted to rice. We have Rajma, Sesame, Mustard, Brinjal as well as Corn. The AAU has always afforded to provide respite to the farmers since its inception in 1969 during different times of crises with development of 15 rice varieties that the Government of India has notified”—Dr. Chetia remarked.

Notably, the Ranjit variety of rice developed by AAU in 1990s is the major variety that farmers cultivate across Assam today. AAU developed varieties like Ranjit, Bahadur, Mashuri have been providing good yields particularly in the flood prone areas. But, a probable change in situation has brought new challenges.

Well, this new variant will take its own time to find its final destiny in the paddy fields. Hang on, we will discuss the details of this variety shortly after a quick look at whether there is any ready option in the farmers’ hand, especially this time when thousands of Bighas of land are feared to go barren for the year? 

Government Notifies Bina 10 & Bina 11 Variety

Taking stock of the situation, Government of Assam, on 28th July, has passed an executive order where it said that Bina 10 and Bina 11 or any other short duration varieties should be made ready to supply to the farmers. 
However, the most popular varieties of rice across Assam are the Ranjit (sub 1). This high yielding variety is long duration one, meaning it takes over 155 days from sowing to harvesting. The most ideal situation for Ranjit’s transplantation is during June 15 to July-15 and the crucial time window has already passed. 

Dr. Sanjay Chetia told us that the seedlings should ideally be transplanted to the field within 30-40 days of sowing. “If the Kothiya (seedlings) are transplanted after July, then fruiting will impacted. This means the yield will be lesser”—he remarked.

On the other hand, Bina varieties can be sowed in starting of August and then transplanted to the main field within 20-21 days. This short duration high yielding variety takes over 100 days from sowing to harvesting. 
It is to be mentioned here that these time frames as prescribed by AAU is within controlled condition. In real fields, these may vary. Bonojit Hussain, a farmer and researcher of agriculture, sharing his experience, told Pratidin Time—“In reality there exists a gap of around 20 days than the ideal timeline. The ideal 155 days for Ranjit variety (from sowing to harvesting) becomes 170-175 days in real field. This is ascertainable to many factors like way of transplanting the seedlings etc.”

Will The Farmers Shift To Bina Readily?

In the situation of overwhelming popularity of the Ranjit variety, the practicality of shifting to Bina abruptly is something to ponder upon. Let’s suppose that the seeds are made available to the farmers in a wide scale. Even in that situation how much farmers will go for a fresh cultivation process remains a question. Many of them have already decided not to transplant their seedlings this year, especially the Ranjit variety as the peak season has already passed.

Sowing, preparing the fields (by tractors or by ploughing) involve a good amount of cost. The PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana) claims to give respite to farmers in distress and the Assam government notification has also mentioned it. But how far this will encourage Assam’s farmers, who still largely depend on traditional system, will remain to be seen.

Dr. Sanjay Chetia apprised us that there are other varieties of seeds for crisis situation like the Luit, Kopilee and Disang. These are early maturing varieties and they can be sown to the main field directly after pre germination. The pre germination is putting the seeds in conducive environment (like in water) to sprout. Farmers don’t need to wait for seedlings to get developed for transplanting to the main field.