Russia "Accidentally" Shot Plane That Crashed In Kazakhstan: Report

A tragic plane crash involving an Azerbaijan Airlines flight near Kazakhstan's Aqtau on Christmas Day has raised concerns over the possibility of an accidental missile strike. The Embraer 190 jet, en route from Baku to Grozny in Russia, crashed into a field three kilometres from Aqtau airport, killing 38 of the 67 people onboard, including 62 passengers and five crew members. Among the 29 survivors were two young girls, aged 11 and 16.

Investigations Suggest Missile Strike

Military experts, citing foreign media reports, including the Wall Street Journal, Euronews, and AFP, have suggested the plane might have been "accidentally struck" by a Russian surface-to-air missile or anti-aircraft fire. Photos of the wreckage showed holes in the fuselage and marks on the tail, consistent with missile shrapnel damage. A video posted by Clash Report on X highlighted these large holes, some resembling pinpricks, others several inches wide.

The flight had been navigating airspace near Grozny, the heavily defended Chechnya capital, where Ukrainian drone activity has been reported. Experts like Yury Podolyaka, a Russian military blogger, and Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at Osprey Flight Solutions, have linked the damage to anti-aircraft fire. "The wreckage and circumstances around airspace security in southwest Russia indicate... the aircraft was hit by some form of antiaircraft fire," Borie said. Meduza, a Russian media outlet, also reported traces of a surface-to-air missile impact, corroborating similar instances in other aircraft incidents.

Survivors Describe Explosions

Passengers seated in the tail section, who survived, reported hearing loud explosions shortly after their landing request at Grozny airport was denied. The UK’s Telegraph attributed these explosions to mid-air detonation of the plane's oxygen tanks. Additionally, a video from inside the aircraft showed a female passenger with apparent shrapnel injuries to her leg.

The aircraft had turned back across the Caspian Sea, possibly aiming to return to Kazakhstan. However, a secondary emergency, potentially a hydraulics failure, forced the crew to request an emergency landing at Aqtau, where the crash occurred.

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Black Box Recovered

The plane’s black box has been recovered, and data from the flight data and voice recorders will be analyzed as part of the investigation. Azerbaijan Airlines initially attributed the crash to a flock of birds but later withdrew the statement.

Should the investigation confirm that a Russian missile caused the crash, it would mark the second confirmed instance of a commercial jet being shot down by Moscow or its allies. In 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17 was shot down by Russian-backed forces in Donbas using a surface-to-air missile.

Official Responses

The Kremlin urged patience, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating, "We need to await the end of the investigation." Kazakh Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev echoed this sentiment, noting that "real experts are looking... they will make their conclusions."

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev declared Thursday a day of mourning, cancelling a planned visit to Russia for a Commonwealth of Independent States summit. Expressing his condolences, Aliyev stated, "I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash... and wish a speedy recovery to the injured." He also attributed worsening weather conditions as a potential factor in the crash. Azerbaijan Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva shared her grief, saying she was "deeply saddened by the news of the tragic loss of lives in the plane crash."

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