World Inches Closer to Nuclear Brink, Warns SIPRI Report

The world is edging toward a new era of nuclear competition, warns the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as major powers expand and modernize their nuclear arsenals. At the forefront of this shift is China, which, according to SIPRI’s latest Yearbook 2025, added approximately 100 nuclear warheads in just the past year—bringing its total to an estimated 600.

The Swedish think tank notes that if China continues at this pace, it could possess around 1,000 warheads by the early 2030s. The rapid growth is coupled with massive infrastructure developments, including hundreds of new missile silos that may soon rival the capabilities of the U.S. and Russia in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) deployment.

SIPRI’s findings highlight a broader global trend: nearly all nine nuclear-armed nations—China, the U.S., Russia, France, the U.K., India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are not only maintaining but actively upgrading their nuclear capabilities.

As of early 2025, the global nuclear warhead count stands at approximately 12,241, with about 9,614 of those in military stockpiles and ready for use. Around 3,912 warheads are deployed on missiles or aircraft, and some 2,100 remain on high operational alert—primarily under U.S. and Russian control.
Alarmingly, SIPRI notes signs that China may be moving toward adopting a similar posture, possibly maintaining some warheads mounted on missiles even in peacetime, a shift from its historically lower-alert posture.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith stressed the gravity of the situation: “The post-Cold War trend of gradual nuclear disarmament is now in reverse. What we’re seeing instead is preparation for nuclear conflict.”

In South Asia, both India and Pakistan continue to enhance their nuclear delivery capabilities. India’s arsenal has seen slight growth in 2024, along with the development of new road-mobile missile systems potentially capable of carrying multiple warheads. Pakistan, too, is expanding its program, producing more fissile material and refining delivery mechanisms.

North Korea, while more opaque, is estimated to possess around 50 nuclear warheads and the capacity to produce up to 40 more. Israel, though maintaining a policy of ambiguity, is believed to hold approximately 90 nuclear weapons.

Despite China’s rise, Russia and the United States still dominate the global nuclear landscape, jointly holding nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. Russia has 5,459 warheads, while the U.S. holds 5,177, though both nations continue to modernize rather than reduce their stockpiles.

Hans Kristensen, a SIPRI senior fellow and nuclear expert, pointed to the unraveling of arms control agreements as a major concern. “We’re seeing a collapse in treaties and norms that once helped keep nuclear tensions in check,” he said. “And the strategic environment is being complicated further by emerging technologies.”

SIPRI also warns that technological advances—including artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and missile defense systems—are introducing new variables into the already volatile domain of nuclear strategy. These developments, combined with escalating conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and other flashpoints, are pushing the world toward heightened instability.

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