Are We Ready to Go to Full-Scale War with Pakistan?

Actually, this question should now be aimed at Pakistan: “Are you ready to go to war with India?” Until yesterday, this question was hypothetical. But as of midnight, Operation Sindoor has commenced—signaling that India has moved from strategic patience to assertive action.

The answer from both countries would previously have been negative—and certainly more so for Pakistan. But now, with the situation escalating into active operations, the stakes are far higher, and the costs are more immediate.

Let us take a simple example to understand the kind of finances required to fight even a one-day war for a modern air force like the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). I served in the Indian Air Force (IAF) for a little over 30 years as a fighter pilot and was the head of a MiG-21 squadron. I last flew a fighter in 2000. Yet, I find my knowledge of the current costs of sustaining training operations in the IAF to be inadequate. That’s because the numbers today have reached astronomical proportions.

Instead of relying solely on memory, I turned to our friend—Google—for current estimates on fighter operations in the subcontinent.

Q1. What is the average cost of an air-to-air missile carried by an F-16?
A1. It varies widely depending on the type. A short-range AIM-9X Sidewinder costs around $450,000, while a long-range AIM-120 AMRAAM exceeds $1 million per unit.

Q2. How many AIM-120s can an F-16 carry?
A2. An F-16 can carry up to six AIM-120 AMRAAMs.

Q3. What is a typical F-16 weapons load in an air defense role?
A3. A mix of AIM-120 AMRAAMs for long-range engagements and AIM-9 Sidewinders for close-in dogfights, typically supported by electronic warfare packages.

The Cost of Muscle Flexing

A simple layman’s calculation shows that an F-16 loaded for an air defense mission—with only missiles—carries an operational cost of about $10 million. Add electronic warfare gear, fuel for a 3-hour sortie, and you’re looking at a $20–25 million live mission.

Even without firing weapons, keeping one F-16 on high alert with three sorties per day would cost the Pakistan Air Force a conservative $10–15 million daily. A squadron of 12 F-16s on alert would push this figure to $150–200 million per day.

Google reports that PAF currently maintains about 85 F-16s. Bringing all operational pilots to full readiness means numerous training sorties, expensive munitions usage, and high fuel consumption. These weapons and spares have limited shelf lives and are largely imported. Hence, maintaining even one squadron at full operational readiness for a month could drain nearly $5 billion.

Operation Sindoor now makes these hypothetical numbers a live economic and logistical nightmare for Pakistan. Every minute of operational alertness is bleeding their already fragile economy.

Fuel, Firepower, and Foresight

Let’s put this in perspective. My MiG-21 used to consume around 3,000 litres of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in a single hour. With current multi-role aircraft and AWACS in play, the consumption—and cost—has skyrocketed. A squadron could burn through 1 to 1.5 lakh litres of fuel per day.

Training costs can be budgeted for in peacetime. But no nation can predict or sustain the full spectrum of war-related expenses. That’s why most wars post-WWII—except the Vietnam War—have been short-lived. Resources dry up quickly, and ceasefires or surrenders follow, as seen in 1971 when Pakistan surrendered 93,000 soldiers because they ran out of ammunition.

A Tipping Point for Pakistan?

With Operation Sindoor underway, Pakistan faces a difficult choice: escalate further at enormous cost—or step back and call for peace. My unscientific but experience-based estimate is that Pakistan cannot sustain such pressure for long. We might soon see General Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff, step down, citing moral responsibility for pushing his nation to the edge of economic collapse.
After all, what more can one expect from a military establishment that has historically prioritized optics over preparedness?

India’s Calculated Calm

And what about India? I believe we’re managing the situation with precision. We're not in panic mode. We're not rushing into conflict, but when provoked, we are responding with calibrated might. Operation Sindoor is a signal that restraint has a limit—and that limit has now been breached.
Economically, we can endure. Strategically, we are better prepared. Domestically, the nation is unified in purpose. After a long time, I see a mood in the country reminiscent of 1965 and 1971.

A Veteran’s Caveat

I must admit, there are gaps in my knowledge. I retired in 2004, and the world of warfare has transformed drastically since then. A few years ago, I sat in the cockpit of a Su-30 in one of my old squadrons. It felt more like a spaceship than a fighter jet. If someone challenges my numbers, I may not be able to defend them point-for-point—but they are not without basis.

Let me share a real incident. During my tenure as Flight Commander of a fighter squadron in the Western Sector, I was assigned a mission to destroy an enemy airbase runway. The weapon allocated to me was unsuitable for concrete penetration. When I raised this with the authorities, I was told, “That’s all we have until the next import arrives.” That moment taught me a critical lesson: never enter a war underprepared.

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