India Ramps Up Oil Imports from Russia Amid Iran-Israel Tensions

India has ramped up its imports of Russian crude oil in June, surpassing the combined volumes it traditionally sourced from key Middle Eastern suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. This sharp shift in sourcing comes amid escalating tensions in the Gulf region following Israel’s military strikes on Iran and retaliatory threats from Tehran.

According to preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler, Indian refiners are expected to import between 2 to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude this month — the highest in two years. This figure exceeds the total June imports from major Middle Eastern producers, which are projected at around 2 million bpd, a decline from previous months.

Imports from the United States have also seen a notable rise, reaching 439,000 bpd in June, up from 280,000 bpd in May, signaling a broader diversification strategy amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.

India, the world’s third-largest crude importer and consumer, has historically relied on Middle Eastern suppliers. However, after the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, India pivoted sharply toward Russian oil due to deep discounts triggered by Western sanctions and reduced European demand. Russian oil, which once made up less than 1% of India's total crude imports, now accounts for a substantial 40-44%.

The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, remains central to global oil and gas trade. It serves as the primary route for crude exports from several Gulf nations and is also critical for liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar. India imports about 40% of its oil and half of its gas through this narrow strait.

Tensions have risen dramatically since June 13, when Israel launched pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. The situation intensified further after the U.S. conducted its own strikes on three sites in Iran on Sunday, directly joining the conflict. In response, Iranian hardliners have issued threats to shut the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could send global oil prices soaring.

Kpler reports that concerns over a potential blockade have grown, especially after Iranian state media warned of crude oil prices spiking to USD 400 per barrel.

China, Iran’s largest oil customer, sources nearly half of its seaborne crude from the Gulf and would be directly impacted by any disruption. Moreover, 96% of Iran’s own oil exports flow through the Strait via Kharg Island, making any blockade a self-inflicted blow.

Furthermore, a blockade would likely invite swift international military retaliation. “Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response,” Kpler’s analysis said. “At most, isolated sabotage efforts could disrupt flows for 24–48 hours, the estimated time required for US forces to neutralise Iran’s conventional naval assets.”

Such a move would also strain Iran's ties with Oman, a key diplomatic channel to the West, particularly the United States.

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