Pakistani Airstrikes in Afghanistan Trigger Taliban Retaliation Threat

The Pakistani military carried out airstrikes in Afghanistan late on Tuesday, targeting hideouts of the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) in the Paktika province, as confirmed by security sources. While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) did not release an official statement, sources told Al Jazeera that the raids occurred in the Barmal district of Afghanistan, near Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The Taliban-led Afghan government confirmed the airstrikes but claimed that civilians were the primary victims. A spokesperson for the Taliban said at least 46 people, including women and children, were killed in the raids. "The Pakistani side should understand that such arbitrary measures are not a solution to any problem," said Enayatullah Khowarazami, spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Defence Ministry.

"The Islamic Emirate will not leave this cowardly act unanswered and considers the defense of its territory an inalienable right," he added.

The air raids, the second of their kind this year, occurred shortly after a meeting in Kabul between Pakistan's special representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadi, and interim Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. Sadi posted on social media that they had "held wide-ranging discussions" and agreed to work together to strengthen bilateral cooperation and promote peace in the region.

The raids are likely to worsen the already strained relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, analysts believe. Pakistan has long accused the Afghan government of harboring TTP fighters, who it claims launch cross-border attacks targeting Pakistani security forces. Last week, TTP militants claimed responsibility for killing 16 Pakistani soldiers in one of the deadliest attacks in South Waziristan.

While the Taliban denies providing refuge to armed groups, Pakistan maintains that the TTP operates from safe havens in Afghanistan. In a recent United Nations Security Council briefing, Pakistani diplomat Usman Iqbal Jadoon stated, "The TTP, with 6,000 fighters, is the largest listed terrorist organisation operating in Afghanistan. With safe havens close to our border, it poses a direct and daily threat to Pakistan’s security."

There has been a noticeable rise in attacks and casualties in Pakistan, particularly in its northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern Balochistan provinces, which border Afghanistan. According to Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, more than 1,500 violent incidents this year have resulted in at least 924 deaths, including 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians. The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reported 856 attacks so far in 2024, surpassing last year’s total of 645.

Pakistan claims to have shared evidence of TTP operations with the Taliban, but these concerns have yet to be adequately addressed. Pakistan launched a military campaign in June called Azm-e-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability), and security analysts believe the recent airstrikes may be part of this ongoing operation. Amir Rana, a security analyst and director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, noted that these air raids appear to be a response to recent attacks on Pakistani soldiers.

Rana also suggested that Sadiq’s visit to Kabul was focused on conveying Pakistan’s concerns over TTP operations from Afghanistan, rather than being directly related to the airstrikes. "Sadiq’s visit was more about conveying the government message to share its apprehensions about increasing attacks by TTP networks which operate from Afghanistan, and was likely a trust-building exercise," he said.

Ihsanullah Tipu, a security analyst, pointed out that Pakistan has conducted several airstrikes on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan over recent years. However, he criticized Pakistan’s approach as inconsistent and reactive. "Historically, Pakistan’s approach has been personality-driven rather than strategy-driven. Actions such as cross-border air strikes should be part of a comprehensive and well-planned policy instead of reactive measures," Tipu said.

Tipu also suggested that while the Afghan government may promise retaliation, the real response could come from the TTP. "The actual reaction may come from the Pakistani Taliban, who have been discussing revenge attacks in their internal communications already, alleging that the strikes killed their women and children," he said.

Rana noted that cross-border attacks are increasingly common worldwide, and Pakistan is unlikely to face international criticism for its air raids. "But this also presents a big challenge to us, and a matter to introspect, that despite four decades of engagement in Afghanistan, we still have not developed diplomatic skills to hold dialogue with rulers in Afghanistan, whoever it might be, in a constructive manner," he said.

Tipu emphasized that the TTP issue remains a major obstacle to Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. "With Sadiq’s reappointment as special envoy, there were hopes for détente between the two countries. However, Tuesday’s strikes may significantly hinder any progress before it formally begins," he concluded.