The Covid case in Assam should be peaking by May 21. i.e. tomorrow, said a three-member panel of scientists set up by the central government who used the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) model
According to a three-member panel of scientists set up by the central government, India's second wave of Covid-19 will decline by July this year. A third wave can be expected after six to eight months.
The committee also suggested that Meghalaya could peak on May 30 while Tripura is likely to peak by May 26-27.
Assam has in fact started witnessing a decreasing trend even if massive upscale of testing. On May 19, despite a huge 1,02,000 tests in Assam only 6143 cases with a positivity rate of 6% which has been consistently coming down since May 14 when it was at its peak of 9.3%.
Using the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) model, the scientists predicted that the end of May will see about 1.5 lakh cases per day and the end of June will witness 20,000 cases on a daily basis.
"States like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana besides Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak," said Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur, a member of the panel.
In the north, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are witnessing a surge in cases at present. Himachal Pradesh may see a peak in cases by May 24 and Punjab by May 22.
According to the model, a third wave is expected in six to eight months. The impact of the same can be cushioned.
"It will be localised and many people will not be affected because they will enjoy immunity thanks to vaccination," Professor Agarwal said. He added that there will not be a third wave till October 2021 at least.
Mathematical models such as the SUTRA model help to predict the intensity of pandemics and, hence, influence policy decisions. The SUTRA model came into existence last year to study the trajectory of Covid.
This National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee that uses the model, meanwhile, was formed by the government to make projections about the spread of Covid-19 in India.
The committee, however, accepted that it was unable to predict the nature of the second wave in the country.