Inside View
Ron.
With the Russia-Ukraine war stepping into the third week, it seems highly likely that Russia is heading towards a massive defeat. The whole scenario is looking increasingly disastrous for Russia with speculations mounting that President Vladimir Putin’s ‘misadventure’ could rather prove to be fatal for him.
Since the beginning of the war, several countries vehemently opposed the move and rained down crippling economic sanctions that could very well lead to the collapse of the Putin regime.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia amounted to $1,648 billion in 2021, which is about the same size as the combined GDP of Belgium ($582 billion) and the Netherlands ($1,008 billion) in the same year.
Russia could be called an economic dwarf in Europe as its GDP represents barely 10% of it.
Could an economically underdeveloped country win such an intense war?
The West has launched an all-out economic war on Russia with sanctions so harsh that the Russian Ruble (currency) is now equivalent to a mere $0.0083.
The sanctions include ban on Russian oil and gas, financial measures like suspensions on banks, ban on international businesses in the country, heavy sanctions on trade and commerce and so on.
The assumption was right that Russia, with its massive overmatch in air and land power, would win the first stage of the war against Ukraine. But as days passed by, Russia seems to have taken a back-foot, considering all the harsh costs that the United States and its allies have imposed.
It is becoming clearer that Putin’s gamble is failing.
The unintended and underestimated consequences of this war will be very hard for Russia to stomach. The lack of political planning (comparable to the planning failures of the US invasion of Iraq) will do its part to make this an unwinnable war.
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Putin seems to be trying to reestablish some form of Russian imperialism. But this extraordinary gamble will probably only set in motion – the end of the Russian empire.
We must remember that autocratic rulers cannot lose wars and remain autocrats.
On the other end of the battlefield, brave Ukrainians have refused to stand down and decided to fight, amid savage bombardments in many cities. Not to mention, the capital city of Kyiv still remains under Ukrainian control, to the surprise of many onlookers.
Every nation is built on a story. The story of Ukrainians will be told not only in the dark days ahead, but in generations to come. The President who refused to leave his people and flee, tell the US they need ammunition, not a ride out of there, civilians who stood in front of a tank in order to stop it. These stories will count more than tanks in the long run.
Many are wondering what once seemed inconceivable – could the Ukrainians actually win?
But unfortunately, this senseless war will be a long-lasting one. It may even continue for years, in different forms. Why? Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear bombs do not necessarily win a conventional war, but can definitely reduce an entire country to ashes, in a blink of an eye. It is potentially a great risk to the rest of the world as Russia is getting increasingly isolated.
What will an autocratic leader do when he realizes that he cannot win the war by conventional means? A terrifying question indeed.
But, that also remains highly unlikely as Russia will have to drastically increase its military spending, which will be very expensive due to the economic sanctions.
It is however pertinent to mention that the damage and violence that have been inflicted in Ukraine will last for generations, but what will remain prevalent is the courage and valor of the Ukrainian people, their resistance to the invasion, and perhaps winning the war, hopefully in the near future.
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