BNP Victory in Bangladesh Elections 2026: What it Means for India?

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), once led by the enigmatic Khaleda Zia, has won in the February 2026 elections under the leadership of her son Tarique Rahman. This marks a significant shift in the geopolitics of South Asia and can shape out to be a boon or bane for India. 

Historically, India has been seen as pro-Awami League, which was excluded from contesting following Zia’s long-time rival Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in 2024 amid turmoil. That led to recent friction between the neighbours, from politics to cricket.

However, as the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government steps aside for Rahman’s democratically elected BNP to take over, it presents an opportunity for India to mend fences with Bangladesh, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the first step in congratulating Rahman on the victory.

“I convey my warm congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading BNP to a decisive victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership. India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals,” PM Modi wrote on social media.

I convey my warm congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading BNP to a decisive victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh.

This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership.

India will continue to stand in support of a democratic,…

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) February 13, 2026

The Good

Pragmatic “Bangladesh First” Policy

The BNP has framed its foreign policy doctrine around the slogan “Bangladesh Before All,” advocating sovereign, interest-driven diplomacy. The party emphasises “equality, fairness, pragmatism, and recognition of mutual interests” in dealing with global partners.

Speaking on it, Rahman has previously said, "Bangladesh comes first. I will prioritise the interests of my country’s people and my nation’s interests first. Whatever I do, I will do so while upholding those interests.”

For India, this pragmatism may be more reassuring than confrontational rhetoric. An economy-centric approach could sustain cooperation in trade, connectivity and border management, even if ideological warmth is absent.

Resetting Public Perception

A key irritant in Bangladesh’s political discourse has been the perception of Indian over-alignment with the Awami League. By engaging constructively with a popularly elected BNP government, India has an opportunity to rebuild goodwill beyond partisan lines.

Reports of diplomatic outreach, including engagement by India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with BNP leadership, suggest that both capitals are working toward a functional reset, even if no formal recalibration framework has yet been announced.

Economic Interdependence as Stabiliser

Economics remains the strongest anchor of bilateral stability. Bangladesh’s export economy is overwhelmingly driven by its ready-made garment sector, which constitutes roughly 80 per cent of national exports. The industry remains structurally dependent on imported raw materials, particularly cotton from India. This supply chain integration creates mutual incentives to avoid political disruption.

Connectivity agreements, including Indian transit access to the Northeast via Bangladeshi territory and use of Chattogram and Mongla ports, have historically strengthened regional integration. Though occasionally controversial within Bangladesh for perceived asymmetry, these arrangements underscore the depth of economic interdependence.

The Bad

Security and Insurgency Concerns

During the BNP’s previous tenure (2001–2006), Indian intelligence agencies alleged that insurgent outfits such as ULFA found sanctuary in Bangladesh. Though cross-border cooperation improved significantly under the Awami League government, concerns persist that any rollback of security coordination could embolden dormant networks.

At present, there is no concrete evidence of policy reversal, but security agencies in India will remain vigilant.

Sheikh Hasina’s Extradition

The interim Bangladeshi government formally requested India to extradite former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who remains in India after being convicted in absentia in Bangladesh.

Dhaka has indicated that the issue could remain diplomatically sensitive. However, Bangladeshi officials have also suggested that broader bilateral interests, including Teesta negotiations and border management, may take precedence over a single contentious matter.

New Delhi’s response to this request could significantly shape public sentiment in Bangladesh.

China and Pakistan Tilt

Under the post-Hasina transition, China’s economic and infrastructural footprint in Bangladesh has reportedly expanded, reflecting Dhaka’s traditional balancing strategy.

Simultaneously, Pakistan has sought to deepen engagement with Bangladesh, potentially including defence cooperation. Any visible tilt toward Beijing or Islamabad could dilute India’s strategic leverage in the Bay of Bengal.

Minority Safety Concerns

Human rights groups, including the Rights & Risks Analysis Group, have reported an uptick in communal violence targeting Hindu minorities amid recent political instability. Reports cite over 2,000 hate-related incidents between August 2024 and mid-2025.

While such violence is not exclusive to any one party’s tenure, the BNP government will face scrutiny over minority protection and communal harmony, issues closely monitored in India.

The In-Between

Transit Rights

Transit access for Indian goods through Bangladesh has been a strategic advantage for India’s Northeast. However, domestic critics within Bangladesh have questioned whether the benefits have been proportionate.

The BNP has signalled willingness to review agreements perceived as unequal. Any renegotiation would likely seek recalibrated reciprocity rather than outright cancellation.

Water Sharing Disputes

Water remains a politically sensitive issue. Rahman has repeatedly called for a “fair share of water from the Teesta and other common rivers,” rejecting what he describes as unequal arrangements.

He has framed water security as a right rather than a concession, a formulation that suggests Dhaka may push harder for resolution of pending agreements, especially the long-stalled Teesta pact.

Influence of Jamaat-e-Islami

The role of Jamaat-e-Islami will be closely watched in New Delhi. Jamaat and allied formations reportedly secured 77 seats in the 2026 parliamentary election, giving them a meaningful parliamentary presence.

Historically, Jamaat partnered with the BNP government between 2001 and 2006, a period that analysts link to heightened instability in India’s Northeast. While current policy alignments remain unclear, the ideological orientation of coalition partners could shape security and diplomatic postures.

Conclusion

The BNP’s return to power does not automatically signal deterioration in India-Bangladesh ties. Rather, it introduces a more complex, interest-driven dynamic.

If managed pragmatically, this transition could mature the relationship beyond personality-based diplomacy into institutional resilience. If mishandled, particularly over security cooperation, water sharing, or extradition, it could reopen old fault lines.