1.46 Billion Voices: Wombs Whisper Less as India's Crowds Grow Louder

As India’s population has witnessed a significant surge and is expected to reach 1.46 billion by 2025, surpassing all global counterparts, an immediate question arises: if the country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped, why is the population still growing? The latest United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report, State of World Population (SOWP) Report, The Real Fertility Crisis, offers key insights. But behind the numbers lies a much deeper demographic story—one that could redefine India's economy, governance, and future.

Falling Births, Rising Numbers

India’s TFR now stands at 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement threshold of 2.1. The replacement rate is the minimum level at which a population can sustain itself without external migration. So, if fewer children are being born per woman, how is India still projected to reach 1.7 billion people in the coming decades?

The answer lies in population momentum. Decades of high fertility have created a large base of young people who are now entering or are already in their reproductive years. Even with fewer children per couple, the sheer volume of people having children sustains population growth. In other words, it’s not how many children each woman is having now, but how many women there are overall.

India's Youth: An Opportunity or a Crisis in Waiting?

With nearly 68% of the population in the working-age group (15–64) and 26% in the 10–24 age bracket, India holds what many call a “demographic dividend.” But is the country prepared to capitalise on it?

Jobs, education, and healthcare infrastructure must grow at pace as the population to turn this dividend into an advantage. If unmet, this youthful energy could convert into widespread underemployment, frustration, and social unrest.

Can India create enough meaningful work for this massive workforce, or will it buckle under the weight of its own demographic bulge?

Women and the New Fertility Story

The UN report shifts the narrative from panic over falling fertility to the “real fertility crisis”: the gap between people’s desired and actual family outcomes. More Indian women are choosing to delay or forgo motherhood, thanks to higher literacy, increased workforce participation, and greater reproductive autonomy. Yet this is happening in a society that still lacks structural support for working mothers, be it maternity benefits, accessible childcare, or equitable household labour division.

What Falling Fertility Means for Indian States 

A decline in fertility rates results in demographic transition, such as an ageing population and a reduction in the young workforce. While India’s national TFR is 1.9, some southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are already far below this level. These states fear they could lose political representation in the upcoming delimitation exercise due to their population control successes, while states with higher fertility (mainly in the Hindi heartland) may gain more seats and resources.

The Ageing India: Are We Ready?

As fertility declines and life expectancy rises (projected at 74 years for women and 71 for men by 2025), India’s population is not just growing—it is ageing. Currently, 7% of the population is aged 65 and above, and this is expected to rise sharply in the coming decades.

How prepared is India for an ageing society? From pensions to elder healthcare, from social security to intergenerational equity—India must answer questions that once seemed distant but are now urgent.

The Migration Factor: A Quiet but Powerful Force

Another factor contributing to fertility decline is the growing migration of young Indians abroad. With many settling overseas for education and employment, the number of reproductive-age individuals choosing to raise families outside India is increasing.

The UNFPA report is a wake-up call, not to panic about overpopulation or underpopulation, but to focus on people’s unmet reproductive goals. The real crisis is not numbers; it’s the lack of choice, support, and informed agency. As India stands at a demographic crossroads, the question is not just how many people live in the country, but how they live. 

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