Al-Qaeda’s Newest Threat and Implications for Northeast

Abhijan Das

While our Lashkar-e-Noida was focused on nuking Pakistan from their “news” studios, something way more sinister has largely gone unnoticed. On May 7th, within 24 hours of India launching Operation Sindoor to avenge the cowardly and discriminative killing of Indian & Nepali tourists as well as a Kashmiri local by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists, al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) released a press note reaffirming its commitment to wage Jihad against the Indian state. While such rhetoric is not new, there are several significant nuances in this letter, especially for Northeast India. 

The first thing a trained eye would notice is that this particular press note was released by the media wing of al-Qaeda core, as-Sahab Media. This is divergent from its modus operandi of using the more focused AQIS channel, al-Sahad. The as-Sahab channel is generally reserved for sermons and speeches of senior al-Qaeda commanders as well as footage of international operations carried out by them. Thus, this could be an indication of endorsement of top leadership to take up Jihad in the sub-continent as a strategic goal of al-Qaeda.

The second digression from AQIS’s stated stance is in the title of the note itself. It reads, “Indian Aggression on the land of Pakistan.” In 2014 the then Amir of al-Qaeda, Aman al-Zawahiri, declared the launch of AQIS. He identified the strategic goal of the organisation was to fight and overthrow the governments of India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and (most interestingly), Pakistan. Subsequently, in March 2016, in a video released by AQIS, it stated its operational targets, among which were the Pakistani Military Intelligence and security agencies as well as the Pakistani government. In this video, India did not find a mention. However, in the recent media release, the group has referred to the terrorist infrastructures as mosques and those killed in Indian strikes as martyrs. Interestingly, there is no reference to the Pakistani government or its agencies. While the association of al-Qaeda with Lashkar-e-Toiba is well-known, this is probably the first time that they have clearly sided with the Pakistani establishment. This raises the question as to whether al-Qaeda wants to take up the role of being the most important proxy of the Pakistani deep state (read ISI), in its bid to ‘bleed India by 1000 cuts,’ as espoused by its former premier, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. 

The next significant departure is in its positioning of Jihad itself. Traditionally, AQIS has advocated for Jihad-al-Saif (Jihad by sword), which refers to direct physical confrontation. This can be evidenced in its November 2021 video where it calls upon Indian Muslims to ‘join the Jihad in Kashmir’ and ‘actively participate in battles there.’ Also in June 2022, in its monthly publication, AQIS identified the Indian Government as ‘Saffron terrorists’ and asserted “we shall bind explosives with our bodies and the bodies of our children to blow away the ranks of those who dare to dishonour our Prophet.” However, in its recent press release, they have diverted from this and positioned the Jihad against the Indian state as Jihad Fi Sabilillah or Jihad in the cause of Allah. This encompasses a much larger ambit, going beyond the physical to the spiritual, social and moral aspects of Jihad and is often termed as a moderate Muslim’s duty, which is to struggle against evils within her/him and in the society. Such a shift may have been necessitated by the fact that their appeal to the Indian Muslims to participate in violent Jihad against the Indian state has landed on deaf ears and has found no takers among the patriotic Indian Muslim community. Thus, to make itself marketable to the nationalistic Indian Muslims, they seemed to have shifted to the more spiritual path which they then plan to divert towards their nefarious goals through slow-drip radicalisation. This change in positioning should be both a welcome sign as well as a matter of worry to the Indian security apparatus.

However, the most worrying aspect of this press release are its implications to India’s Northeast. On March 1st 2022, the first Bangladeshi al-Qaeda operative was arrested by Assam Police. This led to subsequent busting of over 60 AQIS sleeper cells across India, including several other cells in Assam, Tripura and West Bengal. All the leaders of these cells were Bangladeshi nationals, affiliated to Ansar al-Islam aka Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), a proscribed AQIS affiliate. Their Second-in-Command, one Mehbaboor, escaped from Assam during these operations and was subsequently arrested in Dhaka during the government of Sheikh Hasina. The links of AQIS to Bangladesh is beyond doubt though significant steps were taken to put a lid on the organisation’s operations in the country. However, the violent takeover of the elected government in August 2024 saw a rather radical regime take over the reins of power in Bangladesh led by an unelected person who spews hatred towards India from international platforms and is ably backed by his lieutenants in their anti-India statements. However, beyond the rhetoric, the real cause of worry are their actions. During the overthrowing of the government, several key leaders of proscribed AQIS affiliated organisations like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, Bangladesh and ABT “escaped” from prisons where they were put in by the Hasina government. In September 2024, the Amir of ABT, Jassim Uddin Rahmani, was formally released from prison and all charges were dropped. In his first public appearance after 12 years of imprisonment, Rahmani openly threatened India and stated that the target of his organisation will be Assam and West Bengal. These developments in Bangladesh and the recent assertion of AQIS should raise alarms in India and should give sleepless nights to security planners in Northeast as Pak-sponsored terrorism is not new to the region.