Encirclement of India: Nepal Joins the List

South Asia is restless again. From Colombo to Dhaka, and now Kathmandu, the story has a familiar ring—youth-led protests, collapsing governments, and sudden openings for foreign influence. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and now Nepal, one after another, have shifted in ways that suit American interests. For India, it is beginning to look like a deliberate encirclement.

Nepal’s crisis has been brewing for months but exploded when K.P. Sharma Oli’s government attempted to block Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and other platforms. In a country where young people live online, it was nothing short of political suicide.

Within days, the streets filled with furious crowds. Parliament and other public buildings were attacked, nearly twenty people were killed, and Oli was left with no choice but to step down.

Out of this chaos has risen Balendra Shah—popularly known as Balen. An engineer, rapper, and the independent mayor of Kathmandu, he has suddenly become the face of the movement and is being spoken of as the interim prime minister. For many, his rise symbolises a generational shift: a rejection of tired political dynasties and corrupt elites.

But beneath the surface, the crisis is more than just Nepal’s domestic upheaval. It is part of a larger game. Nepal was long treated as Beijing’s sphere of influence, with Chinese diplomats such as Hou Yanqi openly steering local coalitions. Oli himself was seen as China’s closest partner in Kathmandu. Yet, with his fall, Nepal appears to be edging away from Beijing’s grip.

This shift is not drifting into democratic idealism alone—it is laced with monarchist nostalgia. The idea of restoring the Hindu monarchy, abolished in 2008, has been gathering steam. Just a few months ago, royalist rallies demanding the king’s return ended in bloodshed.

The symbolism of Nepal’s army chief speaking with a portrait of Prithvi Narayan Shah in the background was not lost on anyone. The monarchy may well be inching back into relevance.

For Washington, the timing could not be better. Sri Lanka’s street revolution in 2022 cut short China’s dominance there. Bangladesh’s 2024 transition put in place a leadership far more amenable to the West. Pakistan continues to swing between Washington and Beijing depending on the day.

 And now Nepal, once a reliable Chinese partner, is convulsing in ways that open the door to U.S. influence. Add a Hindu monarchy into the mix and the encirclement of India acquires both strategic and ideological weight.

Yet there is a darker underside to Nepal’s upheaval. The protests that began as an outcry for dignity and jobs have at times crossed into mob behaviour. When mobs begin targeting the families of politicians—wives, children, and relatives—it ceases to be a movement and becomes pure mobocracy. 

Videos from Kathmandu already show how quickly fury can descend into bloodlust. The second you target families, you are no longer reformers—you are a mob. That distinction matters, because once unleashed, mobocracy does not build a better state; it tears down whatever remains of order. Nepal is teetering on that edge.

The horror is not theoretical. Rumours that mobs tried to storm private residences, and even suggestions that an ex-Prime Minister was nearly burned alive in his own home, illustrate just how combustible the atmosphere has become. These are not the actions of a democratic uprising but of an uncontrolled crowd that could drag the country into long-term instability.

For India, this presents a direct security headache. The 1,770-km open border with Nepal is often celebrated as a symbol of shared history and culture. But it is also a gaping security risk. Over the years, intelligence agencies have repeatedly flagged that militants and operatives from Pakistan land in Kathmandu and then quietly slip into India through this porous border.

Once inside, they disappear into the vastness of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. With Nepal now in chaos, the danger of this route being exploited further is very real.

India cannot afford to view Nepal’s turmoil as just another neighbour’s problem. An unstable Kathmandu means spillover across the border—illegal arms, counterfeit currency, and potentially terrorist infiltration. Closing or at least tightly regulating the open border must now be part of Delhi’s debate, however unpopular the idea may sound. Cultural bonds are important, but national security cannot be left vulnerable at a time when the region is already shifting rapidly.

The tragedy, of course, is that Nepal’s youth never set out to become pawns in this great game. Their anger was genuine: they wanted jobs, accountability, and an end to the suffocating corruption of their leaders. But the movement has mutated.

With monarchist slogans mixing with mob violence and foreign interests circling, Nepal risks becoming yet another cautionary tale of how noble uprisings can be hijacked.

For India, the warning signs could not be clearer. The neighbourhood is shifting, and every shift has left Delhi with less space to manoeuvre. Pakistan is unstable, Bangladesh has tilted West, Sri Lanka is indebted and pliant, and now Nepal is in the throes of a bloody transformation that may yet crown a king again.

Western backed force encirclement is no longer an abstract concept whispered in strategy papers. It is happening, visibly, one neighbour at a time. And unless India acts with foresight—securing its borders, recalibrating its diplomacy, and preparing for the possibility of a mob-ruled Kathmandu—the costs will land directly at Delhi’s door.

Also Read: Nepal in Turmoil: Gen Z Uprising Rekindles Shadows of a Violent Political Past