Survey Pinpoints Modi Factor Behind BJP's Haryana, Maharashtra Wins

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a decisive victory in the recent Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections, overcoming the Congress and other opposition parties. The BJP formed governments in both states, defying expectations set by its relatively lower performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Insights from the Matrize Survey, conducted between November 25 and December 14, 2024, shed light on the key factors behind the party's triumph.

The survey, which sampled 76,830 voters in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana, pointed to several critical elements contributing to the BJP’s success. Foremost among these was the enduring popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite the BJP's performance in the Lok Sabha elections, which saw the party win only 240 seats, Modi’s image as a strong and influential leader remained intact in both states. The survey revealed that around 55 per cent of voters in Maharashtra and 53 per cent in Haryana saw an increase in Modi’s popularity, which played a pivotal role in securing the Assembly wins.

Another major finding was the failure of Congress' narrative surrounding constitutional changes. The Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, had attempted to rally voters during the Lok Sabha elections by claiming the Modi government aimed to alter the Constitution. However, the survey indicated that this issue did not resonate with voters in the Assembly elections, where concerns about constitutional changes, farm laws, and wrestlers' issues had little impact.

The survey also highlighted a lack of trust in Congress leadership, particularly Rahul Gandhi, who was perceived as disconnected from ground realities. Voters in both states doubted his ability to offer a credible alternative to Modi, which contributed to the poor showing of the opposition.

The Matrize Survey further noted a shift in voter sentiment between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Many voters who had not supported the BJP in the national elections returned to the party in the state polls, influenced by growing confidence in Modi’s leadership and the central government’s actions, which voters felt had positively impacted their lives. The opposition's failure to present a coherent alternative allowed the BJP to gain a clear edge.

BJP’s effective messaging also played a crucial role. The slogan "Ek Hain to Safe Hain (When united, we are safe)" resonated with voters, emphasizing stability, national security, and economic growth under Modi's leadership. In contrast, the Congress’ divisive rhetoric and internal leadership struggles alienated voters.
In Haryana, a change in leadership from Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar to new faces helped BJP regain voter trust. The survey found that 44 per cent of respondents felt the leadership shift positively impacted the party's performance. Additionally, the BJP’s focus on local issues and welfare schemes, particularly in agriculture, infrastructure, and rural development, garnered voter support.

The Matrize Survey’s findings paint a clear picture of why the BJP emerged victorious in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. Key factors included the unwavering popularity of PM Modi, the failure of the opposition’s narrative, voter correction of their earlier Lok Sabha decisions, and BJP's strategic use of leadership changes, messaging, and welfare initiatives.