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Delhi: Lotus Strives to Bloom In Front of the Enduring Broom, While the Fisted Hand Remains Frail
This election is perhaps the most contested one in the past twelve years of Delhi’s electoral history. It is also turning to be the toughest battle for AAP in its success history in Delhi, with BJP’s energetic presence and its parting away with Congress. In this backdrop, however this election appears triangular, the real fight is between two—BJP and AAP. Ironically, the sharp electoral battle is not reflected on the streets of Delhi and in the localities.
BJP Gains Ground:
BJP is clearly gaining this time and the party’s hope of increasing its tally of 8 seats in 2020 doesn’t seem to be euphoria. But it will remain to be seen how far the party at the center manages to bag in Delhi.
What seemed to be inviolable political force in Delhi till two years back now struggles against BJP. The anti-incumbency against AAP grew in a natural rhythm and the toppings were laid by Kejriwal and Sisodia’s arrests in the liquor scam. The party that emerges from the anti-corruption movement which engulfed the country during UPA-II tenure was not comfortable to erase the corruption tag on it. “Kuch to hoga, nahi to jail kyo hote?” (There will be something, otherwise how can they be jailed) was the common perception that flew through voters. The BJP appeared offensive too in their campaigns targeting AAP.
BJP’s gain is likely to be based on voters belonging to the middle class and upper middle class, the sections that were overtly with AAP till last assembly election. Middle and upper middle class voters constitute a determining fraction in South and Central Delhi constituencies like Kalkaji (where Atishi Marlena won), New Delhi (won by Kejriwal).
The 8 MLAs that BJP won in 2020 are majorly from the East and Northeast Delhi constituencies. The party is likely to not lose its hold in these constituencies.
How far the schemes, clean Yamuna plan and the freebies that BJP declared in its manifesto will tilt voters in its side will remained to be seen. These schemes are primarily targeted to woo the working class, lower middle class and the economically weaker section.
AAP could also divert the narrative of dirty Yamuna in Delhi—they blamed Haryana for it. This sparked reactions from BJP leaders including Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. Mr. Sarma said in an election meeting today (29th January) while questioning the mental stability of Kejriwal said that he wants to run away from his responsibility of cleaning the Yamuna and wants to hide his failure by blaming the Haryana government.
AAP Still has the Edge:
Despite everything, AAP has the edge. It is due to the intactness of the party’s support base amongst voters in working class and the lower middle class. It stems from AAP government’s policies, primarily of the electricity fee waiver, bus fare waiver as well as waiver in water.
The voters of these sections are convinced that AAP government will ensure these facilities for them. Moreover, recently the Rs. 2100 cash transfer declaration had has a decisive impact. The AAP workers and cadres started filling up forms recently to propagate the impression that doing that will ensure the amount in their bank account, if the party returns into power. The forms however no ways carry any legal commitment. But the stunt is enough given the history of AAP government’s continuity of such schemes.
Notably, the AAP workers could successfully set the narrative that if BJP comes to power in Delhi, all of these will be stopped. This was the reason BJP had to declare that no schemes by AAP government will be stopped even if they come to power this time.
The BJP is also to blame for the ‘Revdi’ (freebies) remarks earlier by its leader none other than PM Narendra Modi when he said in 2022 that taxpayers are pained when they see the money collected from them are spent on “distribution of revdi (freebies)”. This has been brought into fore by AAP leaders in their campaigns, which appeared enough to convince the economically weaker section voters that BJP may halt the facilities they are getting.
Notably, Delhi has a significant voters belonging to the economically weaker working class and AAP’s intact base here gives it the edge. However, one thing is clear that AAP will see a decrease in numbers of seats it won in previous two assembly elections. In 2020 it had 62 seats out of 70 and in 2015 it won 67.
Congress Still Awaits For a Single MLA:
Coming to Congress, it looks like that it is still in the queue to open its account. However, in Muslim dominated constituencies like Okhla the Congress seems to have gained a little in comparison to previous elections. But will the party that once dominated Delhi state politics be able to win a seat or two still remains uncertain.
Congress has failed to set a solid narrative at the correct time. The entry of Congress bigshots, especially of Rahul Gandhi is too late. Only yesterday, Rahul Gandhi appeared in the campaign, where he unleashed verbal attacks on Kejriwal and Sisodia. Mr. Gandhi’s statement appeared legitimizing the jailing of Kejriwal and Sisodia in the liquor scam. In a revert, the AAP attacked Congress by scratching the National Herald case and that of Robert Vadra.
This ugly exchange of verbal sly further intoxicates the INDIA alliance. Congress’s inability of seting any narrative at proper time makes the party stand at the same position more or less.
But an election is full of uncertainties, exasperation and excitement. Changing of the situation right before few hours of voting has also been seen on many occasions. We will have to wait till the counting day to see what the people want.