Himanta Biswa Sarma's Road to Assam 2026 Has More Potholes Than Bridges

While the mourning for music legend Zubeen Garg continues to weigh heavily on Assam’s collective heart, politics is once again slowly and gradually reclaiming the spotlight. The air feels heavy with grief but also with growing anticipation, as the 2026 Assembly elections inch closer, tentatively around April or May.

Conversations in tea stalls, office desks, markets hints at an intense battle ahead, and the mood suggests that this time, the battle for Dispur might be fierce, even bitter as the polling day nears. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sama, who has led the state for five years with an iron grip and a “dynamic” style (as people would put it), now faces a mood that is far more uncertain than before.

Back in 2021, the BJP and its allies had an easy sweep at the polls. Himanta Biswa Sarma’s rise to the top was seen as the beginning of a new and confident phase for Assam, someone who promised development, stability, and a sense of pride in local identity. But five years later, that confidence has been shaken.

Under the development projects and all the flashy headlines, a different mood is taking shape. People are beginning to grumble about discontent, rising prices, widespread corruption, joblessness, and about leaders who seem a little too distant now. On top of that, anti-incumbency is growing stronger, whispers of vote-rigging allegations linger, and also a number of BJP leaders have defected.

The situation has been further complicated by public emotion surrounding the death of our beloved Zubeen Da. Across the state, people have been demanding only one thing, and that is #JusticeForZubeenDa. It is growing even more stronger as more details on the case emerge each passing day.

This ongoing movement has put the BJP-led Assam government under even more pressure as it continues to (and will) dominate conversations in homes and marketplaces. People are determined not to let it fade away, unlike the Abhi-Neel mob lynching and Junmoni Rabha death cases, which were eventually forgotten.

When the Chief Minister urged people not to vote for the BJP if the government failed to deliver justice for Zubeen Garg, his words likely resonated far and wide. In Assam, where emotions around Zubeen Da’s untimely death run deep, even a softly spoken statement can very echo loudly.

“The CM should tread carefully ahead. Every move of his is being watched closely, and even small missteps could be magnified, especially since this is about Zubeen Da. We demand a fair investigation into his death and the culprits should not be spared, even if they have powerful connections” said a student at Dighalipukhuri, as her group nodded in agreement and echoed “yes.”

“Eibar digdari ase Mama’r,” (This time, it’s serious for Mama), said a commuter with a quick smile before walking off, refusing to comment further. ‘Mama’ is a term of affection locals often use for the CM.

There was a survey done by Vote Vibe which bluntly captures the shifting mood. It does show CM Sarma still leading in popularity, but by a whisper-thin margin which is at 45.6% against Congress’s Gaurav Gogoi, who stands at 44.8%.

The difference is like a thin crust of a pizza that could breaks in a quick snap.

CM Sarma remains the choice of many older and middle-aged voters who admire his boldness and fast decision-making, but Gaurav Gogoi on the other hand, seems to be winning over younger people and women who want a change in tone and direction.

Gogoi couldn’t become proved a Pakistani national (yet), but sure is becoming the face of Opposition in Assam.

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s image might stay strong but his party’s local represntatives are struggling. Many people say they are unhappy not with the chief minister but with their own MLAs, accusing them of arrogance and inaction. If that anger continues, it could hurt the BJP’s prospects even if CM Sarma remains personally popular.

Adding to the drama was the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) election held last month. Hagrama Mohilary-led Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), who thought to be finished politically, roared back to life, winning 28 out of 40 seats. The BJP, contesting alone, managed just five. For many, this result was a warning that local pride and regional identity still hold enormous power in Assam’s politics.

Still, the BJP hasnt lost its base. Its recent sweep in the panchayat elections, especially in rural belts and even in Muslim-majority districts like Dhubri and Barpeta, showed that the party’s ground machinery remains strong. Many analysts see this as a sign that the BJP’s reach is spreading quietly, even in areas once considered out of bounds.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections also reinforced the balance of power. The BJP and its allies won 11 of Assam’s 14 seats, while Congress retained three. But the vote share told a different story as it was a near tie, with both parties hovering around 37%.

It may no longer be a one-sided battlefield, but the Congress still struggles to build a strong grassroots presence. With changing tides, they might catch a glimpse of an upper hand, but they could just as easily lose ground again, given the uncertain circumstances.

What could truly decide 2026, though, is the youth vote. For the youth, the biggest issue is clear: jobs, jobs and jobs. More than half of new voters say unemployment worries them the most. While CM Sarma’s government points to new projects and industries, many youths feel opportunities haven’t reached them yet. Gaurav Gogoi has been quick to connect with this frustration, presenting himself as the voice of a generation left waiting.

The time around, the contest will be less about numbers and more about emotion and trust. 

The BJP will ask voters to stay the course: to choose a stable “double engine sarkar”, their development agenda, and strong leadership under CM Sarma. The Congress, on the other hand, will urge people to give change a chance, to bring in a younger face and a softer, people-first politics.

However the results may turn out, people see the next year's elections as an opportunity to act,whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the government. In this kind of fragile atmosphere, the situation can tilt either way. It is a highly unpredictable time in Assam politics.

Yet, all eyes remain fixed on the investigation into Zubeen Garg’s death, which will also knowingly ,or unknowingly, affect the mood of the voters.

Also Read: Assam CM 9th Richest In India Or No Property Except Salary?