The Intelligence Bureau (IB) and other agencies had alerted local security officials in Jammu and Kashmir about a potential attack targeting tourists around the time of the Prime Minister’s scheduled visit to the Union Territory on April 19, specifically in Srinagar, according to people familiar with the matter.
According to reports, security was heightened in and around Srinagar, including areas near several hotels frequented by tourists, as well as popular destinations like Dachigam National Park, located 22 km from the city.
However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit was cancelled due to bad weather, and when the terrorists launched a targeted attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, about 90 km from Srinagar, they killed 26 people — all men — including 25 tourists, 24 of whom were Hindus.
“Nine out of ten times, such alerts lead to nothing, but this one turned out to be accurate regarding the target — tourists. However, the interpretation, which is always the most difficult part, got the location wrong,” said a senior police officer, confirming that both Army and civilian security personnel in Jammu and Kashmir had been instructed to prepare for a possible attack near Srinagar, coinciding with the Prime Minister’s visit.
Four days ahead of the Prime Minister’s scheduled visit, the Prime Minister’s Office cancelled the trip after the meteorological department issued a warning about bad weather around April 18–19. The PM was supposed to travel to three sectors by helicopter, and the adverse weather conditions would have severely disrupted his itinerary. Despite the cancellation, security officials maintained a high level of alert and preparedness.
Reports suggest that Director General of Police Nalin Prabhat remained stationed in Srinagar for four days, closely monitoring the surrounding areas. On April 22, when the terrorists launched the attack, Prabhat had just landed in Jammu and had to immediately return. He did not respond to requests for comment.
Reports suggest that there was no specific mention of Pahalgam in any of the intelligence inputs received, officials have confirmed.
With the benefit of hindsight, officials noted that it is now evident the terrorists went into hiding after the Prime Minister’s visit was cancelled, waiting for the next opportunity. They didn’t have to wait long, as the visit of US Vice President JD Vance, which had been in the pipeline for some time, was officially announced on April 16, just a day after the cancellation.
Officials acknowledged that the key lapse was the failure to anticipate an attack in Baisaran, a location that remains open year-round except during the Amarnath Yatra. “It was the two local terrorists who herded the tourists to one side,” said one official. “The gunfire came from the two foreign militants. Since Baisaran has only a single entry and exit point, which is ticket-controlled, it became difficult for the tourists to flee the attackers.”
Officials stated that the biggest lapse was in local intelligence, as it is now known that the terrorists were living in the area and continue to remain in the region.
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